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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (46392)	9/4/2001 3:09:32 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 56532

Highlights from briefing.com--(first my comments in italics)people are buying in on this NAPM.Consumer still sustaining market and stock buyers are feeling confident they will continue.Until the consumer roll-over,market will have it's moments.One thing i have noted as a constant in those talking-up matters,they ALWAYS say the bad parts in reports will get better and the good parts in reports will STAY good.Though it is known ANY manner of consumer slow-down will make for a full fledge recession the deeply ingrained complaceny of "NOT in America will there ever be a consumer slowdown!"Only one event now i feel can get the final leg down.The reality of a consumer slowdown must happen,because until it does happen the complacent boomer world will NEVER predict nor anticipate such an event--never(it is not permissable to think that way in the "Boomers" mind)---max now the NAPM highlights NAPM rose 4.3 to 47.9% in August. Key Factors 50%+ levels in new orders and production (combined 55% weight) leave the largest positive gain since 1996. 51.9% level in new export orders suggest some building strength from abroad. Overall level still leaves a 13th month of sub-50%. August suggests some significant softening in the sectoral recession. Strong 6.8 point rise in new orders a real surprise given the continued weakness in factory orders. Employment index rose above 40% after 4 months below, will lag improvement in overall index. Prices paid fell to 33.9% from 65.7% at the start of the year. Lessens severity of the profit squeeze. Big Picture 13 months below the 50% neutral mark as the 50%+ levels in August new orders and production provide the first glimpse of hope in quarters. Improvement in the overall index will be slow as some components (e.g. employment) will remain weak for months after the turn higher in orders and production. More proof is needed to confirm the sharp upturn in the August components given the continued weak pace of factory orders through July. The manufacturing sector remains firmly in recession. Prices paid (input costs) fell off the concern list in March as they moved below 50% and continue to plunge. Overall improvement waits for corporate profits/earnings which will foster growth in business investment but only with a lag. Consumer goods are providing modest support. Category Aug Jul Jun May Apr Total Index 47.9% 43.6 44.7 42.1 43.2 Orders 53.1 46.3 48.6 45.5 45.9 Production 52.2 46.4 46.2 42.7 42.9 Employment 40.8 37.2 36.3 35.0 38.1 Deliveries 46.5 47.4 48.0 45.7 47.4 Inventories 37.7 35.8 40.8 38.7 39.6 Export Orders 51.9 48.2 45.5 45.6 47.3 Prices 33.9 38.7 42.3 45.2 48.9 Back to Top Copyright © 2001 Briefing.com, Inc. All rights reserved.