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To: Tony Viola who wrote (142704)	9/4/2001 1:17:16 PM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 186894

Tony, RE: Greenspan in his ultra fear of inflation that never reared its head, screwed the pooch. Tech hasn't been this bad since the 70s. Why, if not for monetary policy? Because the tech industry expanded capacity at an unprecedented rate. That had nothing to do with Greenspan, unless you want to argue that Greenspan should have raised rates sooner in order to prevent that unprecedented expansion, which caused the bubble in part. But raising rates too late does not appear to be part of your argument. If Greenspan had shared earlier Fed chairmen's inclinations toward inflation and growth, he would have raised rates much more and earlier. Instead, he bought into the New Economy and waited. In hindsight, it can be argued that this whole scene might have been avoided if Greenspan had been a little more aggressive a little earlier with a rate rise, but that would have required him to have unprecedented foresight, and in addition, it might have prevented part of the longest expansion in history.

To: Tony Viola who wrote (142704)	9/4/2001 6:14:07 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

RE:"Greenspan in his ultra fear of inflation that never reared its head, screwed the pooch. Tech hasn't been this bad since the 70s. Why, if not for monetary policy?" AG...he saw the inflation coming and hiked appropriately. IT spending was simply destined to go off the cliff after the y2k scare was over. He's been easing for about a year now but the pyramid scheme of choice is now Real Estate....because rates are low and Congress gave it the mother of all tax breaks... Right now, no one wants tech stocks...plain and simple. Those who were burned won't forget for a long time as well. Jim

To: Tony Viola who wrote (142704)	9/5/2001 3:04:06 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi Tony and GV, I agree with GV on the point that the over expansion resulted in a general slow down and the industry is catching its breath. However, I agree with Tony on the point that the pendulum has probably swung a tad too far to the other side now. I think your (Tony's) comment about this impacting productivity/GDP is correct. It's one thing to over invest and slow down to smooth things out a bit, but it is completely a different thing to not spend on making things more productive. Looks like this economy may build up some latent demand for next year. RE: Tech hasn't been this bad since the 70s As far as office "space available" signs go, this is the most (worst) I have ever seen. But I don't know if percentage-wise it is worse than the 90's recession since there are more companies now. Regards, Amy J