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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (103721)	9/4/2001 3:59:21 PM
From: Labrador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Finally got my chance to buy my shares back in QCOM, after selling in my IRA at $65. $54.35. Still got that long-term core position -- and looking out 3-5 years.

To: gdichaz who wrote (103721)	9/4/2001 7:15:05 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Chaz, fair question - from here where forwards. I note you are very very curious having asked me the same thing twice ( Message 16297505 ), so I will respond to you in detail. Context before we start, in counterpoint to the "one trick pony" comment. As only those who know me in real life can vouchsafe, I was rabidly bullish until 2000. And I have become bearish. And I hope to become bullish again. So more than the folks who were once optimistic and are now still optimistic, this pony has demonstrated reasonable performance in at least two tricks and is trying for the hat trick. The odds are against me. But now, "from here, where forwards". Firstly, you know that I am not optimistic in the short term. My money is mostly out of the techs and into bonds and cash. What money is in the market rides on blue-chip granite bedrock, or in little speculative bets. And what is riding on the blue chips is not expectation of capital gain but long term dividend income. The bulk of my money is in highly liquid cash or cash-like things so that I can whip it out and buy stocks when I feel the time is right again. Which (as you know) isn't today. But could be any day now. In truth, I'm thinking that I will be able to pick up your favorite gorillas at $0.50 or less on the dollar, in present value dollars. On the way up from the bottom. Whenever that is. Factoring in the time value of money. Meanwhile earning decent return and indeed capital appreciation on some rather boring out of favor stuff. When that will be? I honestly do not know. Like I can predict that I will die, but not when. I also expect that after I pick them up that I will be able to easily double or triple or tentupple my money during the first part of rest of my hopefully lengthy investing career. Which is what everyone else knows too. It's the law of averages and it is on our sides. So one could say "why bother, why not just buy LTBH and go to sleep". Well, as I said, I am gambling for a 2x gain by buying in at half price. That's 2x from today. Maybe 10x from when I pulled out. That would be 10x versus the alternatively espoused LTBH "ride it out". And comparatively e.g. between alternatives, is the only way to measure the value of a strategy. A 100% return is good. One that nets 10x over the same timeframe is better. So I am betting on a "better" strategy than just LTBH, and I am only half way through the execution phase. All that being said, I also happen to think that it will be possible to buy them at prices up to $2.00 on the dollar in between now and then. A kind of sneaky up down up to vacuum up whatever monetary hope remains. So if I was a speculator I might be buying in now for a flip. But I am less certain of the upside, and even less in my ability to capture it, than I am on the downside. Because it used to be very clear that stocks were overvalued. Certain. Now it is clear that they are still overvalued, but not by the clear factor that demanded decisive and immediate action. Just clear enough to demand prudent action. I see two forces arrayed in the market. The first is driven by those who used to be able to retire and live comfortably but whose assets have slipped below the brink. This force commands a desperate desire for upwards momentum and surges behind every rally. In the past 10 years, the vast majority of "big up days" have been in the last six months, for example. Not on any unexpected news. No, to me this looks like pure pent up hope escaping like steam. The second is financial gravity which rests in the hands of the banksters. A dollar is only a dollar, despite pro-forma currency adjustments that would have you think it was $3 or $5. And with them are macroeconomic factors not the least of which are the impending repatriation of Japanese yen and the completion of the laundering of black-money non-euros into black-money euros. Both of which are likely to result in net outflows from the US equity markets in 2002. Even a rocket scientist should be able to figure out that net outflows are bad for stock price appreciation. And in the middle of this storm are our captains of industry. Who can see within eye of this hurricane as budgets for 2002 are forming now. But it is the eye. And they suspect as much. So they are invoking policies geared around preservation of capital. Only the very flush will commit resources on speculative outcome. 3G for example will suffer gravely I fear, because as "cool" as it is, it is not lifeblood. What happens? Well, might is right, so I'm afraid that the used-to-haves-who-want-to-have are out numbered and trapped. If and when the market rallies, and they experience reasonable gains then they will be wise to take money off the table. Why? Because the only way to earn capital gains from fairly priced equities is for them to become overpriced equities, and the last one out loses. So they will find themselves working (in concert) against each other and their very own desires. Possibly precipitously. Which is very scary. But probably not. Which leaves us with just sad and messy. At the same time, the banksters, who are the silent owners of the casino, are themselves somewhat exposed. Because not only are the planned reneggings distributed amongst the working class, they are also distributed somewhat evenly amongst each other. And their high-stakes game of hot-potato is delicate indeed. It has gone on since the dawn of banking, and will continue until just before the sun cools, but it is less dangerous when conducted in an environment of stability. Because it is financed by the working folks whose pockets they pick. If these folks stampede, well then the game could take a nasty turn. So they can not let this happen. And industry, well it will navigate by dead reconning using caution and prudence. Because there is nothing else for these captains to do. And this prudent timidity will not be enough to catapult the economy into booming gains. All of which looks to me like a relentless, grinding stalemate. With gravity holding the upper hand and thus stock prices gradually sinking. Relentlessly, profit growth as IP is tapped and harnessed will bring economic value upwards and thus meet stock prices "half way". Because the final variable is time. Which is on my side too. Because it only goes forwards. The question is "soon" or "late". As I mentioned before, nobody can predict how long it will last. But I think it will not last more than another year. By this time next year we will have budgetary stability for the 2003 cycle and industry should be on a level keel and on the verge of recovery. As opposed to any false glimmers that will show over the next six months. If not, then it will be very bad indeed and my $0.80 on the dollar target will, in retrospect, look expensive. I used to think "collapse". But I have changed my mind. To my relief the risk of that calamity is now down to survivable levels and instead I merely think we will see a gradual erosion of the capital deployed for "growth" in the market. Until such time as inward infusion all but dries up. Why should the well be capped if there is more oil to be pumped? And so I am not invested in tech. I may be wrong, and I'm willing to take that chance. But I stand beside the strength of my conviction and I have a few dollars and the future of my family riding on it. And perversely, the only way I can lose what really matters to me is if I'm more than right. So I kind of hope that I am wrong or only moderately right. And so I post. Would you do me the favor of replying with your view? I suggest the folks over on the collapse thread would be interested too. Please cross post. Message 16298314 I'll link the other way too so they can find your reply. John.

To: gdichaz who wrote (103721)	9/6/2001 1:41:46 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

gdichaz: Still waiting for your response. Message 16298316 Or, if you haven't forgotten the question, the topic is whether or not it is a good idea to buy, sell or hold Q. Sure, there is the oft repeated refrain of this nature Message 16295799 But if counting things was equal to valuation, well nobody could afford beachfront for the number of grains of sand. So from an investment perspective the number of people in Japan is immaterial. How much will we get from them? What's it worth? Or in your words: Perhaps we should also think about the "One Trick Pony" which was a very fine song. Or perhaps, a bit of thinking about, that was then, this is now. All of what you say is in retrospect. What thinkest thou as of now? From here? Next? What clues or guidelines do you suggest? Best