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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7369)	9/4/2001 4:10:41 PM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 23153

Lehman is looking for AGA of 85 this week and 95-100 next week. Added some more KWK short towards the close. Seems to me the good news is the NAPM, maybe if things recover non tech stocks can begin to justify present valuations. I have not reviewed the data yet, but I would not be surprised to find most of the improvement is in non-tech areas.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7369)	9/4/2001 4:12:01 PM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 23153

More bad news for NG: Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week, published 09/04/01. The market is largely unaware of the fact that the U.S. EPA could potentially clear the way for roughly 40,000 MWs of up-rated and improved coal-fired electric capacity over the next 36 months. Add in the 27,000 MW of new coal-fired Greenfield development and the headlines would read "approximately 67,000 MW of new coal over the next decade." In this case "perception" may be far different from "reality". We believe the longer term realized impacts of this news on actual natural gas consumption and the displacement for newer gas-fired electric capacity will be minimal. Even if the EPA relaxes its restrictions, there will not likely be 67,000 MW of net coal capacity additions over the next decade. Remember, high coal prices weakens the argument for more coal production versus gas production, while geographically, these up-rated MWs will be occurring in markets where gas is not a major factor. Unfortunately, we expect the knee-jerk reaction of the market to an EPA reversal could be very negative to most energy stocks on a short-term basis. KWK was a gift today. I hope lot's of you loaded up. KWK is probably the best short of the three high flyers. Jim