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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (119450)	9/4/2001 4:38:34 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

did you see what happened to prices and inventories in that report? Discount the bookings heavily, IMO

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (119450)	9/4/2001 4:43:12 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I'm back in Valley of the Sun and now I see why you're so damn bearish... wow it's HOT! LOL, nice melt today from the highs no? Jeeez, what came out? DAK

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (119450)	9/4/2001 5:18:51 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

the non-manufacturing NAPM just rolled over below 50 in the prior month.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (119450)	9/6/2001 9:59:46 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 436258

Re: Since no one in the media mentioned it, I will. If NAPM is this strong in October, the Fed will be very hard pressed to justify any further rate cuts. The NAPM was due for a bounce. Remember, this is a diffusion index and really isn't measuring magnitude. Take for instance, the new orders component. They ask the purchasing managers whether their orders are higher or lower than the month before and subtract the "lowers" from the "highers." But if two months ago some firm had orders for 1,000 units and saw them fall to 900 units last month and then had orders rise to 901 units this month, they would be counted as a "higher" for the index. Simply ceasing to liquidate inventories boosts orders enough to turn this index positive. That says nothing about the magnitude of any upturn.