To: donald sew who wrote (17697 ) 9/4/2001 9:43:56 PM From: Challo Jeregy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52237 Semiconductor Billings Updated: 9/4/01 4:43 PM EST Released: 9/4/2001 Coverage: July 2001 Actual: -6.1% Next Release: 10/3/2001 Analysis by: Wes Basel First Take Global chip sales fell 6.1% in July from the previous month, continuing a nine-month downturn, albeit at the slowest rate since April. All four of the SIA’s regional groups experienced declining sales, with the Americas market recording the largest fall, at 9.9%, and the Asian market the smallest, at 3.4%. The Numbers Semiconductor sales fell in June by 6.1% -- the ninth consecutive falloff. The pace of the downturn did moderate in all regions. For the fifth month in the current cycle, sales were down on a year-over-year basis, by 37.9%. The level of sales in July was the lowest since September 1998. The Americas market had the most severe decline in July, but the other three regions also registered sharp fall-offs. Behind the Numbers Both global and U.S. finished equipment inventories are coming more in balance with demand, primarily due to a sharp reduction in production. Some improvement in chip inventories was reported by the SIA, whose current prognosis sees the bottom occurring in September. The nine-month downturn is driven by both a slowdown in U.S. IT demand growth and weaker prices for more common chip types. Weak IT demand has spread to Europe and Asia, while Japan is in or near recession. Over the past three months markets in the Americas and Asia, excluding Japan, have been the weakest. The steep slide in the Asian region was related to its reliance on memory chip manufacturing, which has experienced the largest deterioration in price trends. The slowdown in U.S. computer demand growth heavily impacts chip demand in Asia as well, since many PCs slated for the U.S. market are assembled in Asia. The preliminary release of shipments, inventories and orders for U.S. manufacturers last week showed continued weakness for computer equipment orders, but a rebound in communications equipment. The decline in computer equipment can be explained by price cuts, initiated in tandem with reduced components costs. There is little hope of a sustained recovery in communications equipment, given the excess capacity present in telecom services, and saturation in the cellular industry. Semiconductor orders received by U.S. manufacturers fell sharply in July, and the previously reported increase in June was revised to a small decline. This dampens the hopeful tone of today’s SIA press release. dismal.com