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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (51472)	9/5/2001 9:43:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

HI Brian, The retest of April low on the NAZ appears to be so inevitable it just may not happen.ggg The whole world is braced - I guess if the semi leader warned or confirmed the low end that might get it going - Amat or Intc have that power. Perhaps both together i.e. Intc confirms lower capex and Amat warns the lower revenue numbers. No doubt in my mind the economic numbers are up from here out. Nada's recent letter(got it yesterday)says GDP for Q3 will be 1%plus and Q4 2.7 % plus. We are right on the cusp of a turnaround.If past patterns repeat we need a vix spike and put/call spike with a volume reversal put in intra-day. I've got a great portfolio - like I've never dreamed possible.Much more diverse than before.Although they're all tech and none forgiven by recent trading. I still have patience and the capability to margin.To use margin requires a perfect set up: 1) vix spike over 50 -intraday 2) cpc over 1.1 trading volume 3) 2.0 billion plus on the NAZ 4) The fast deceleration of the generals i.e Amat, Intc,Nvls as the smaller stocks dry up on no trades or do lightning fast dips down as GTC lowballs are the only bidders in town 5) The widespread word hyped into pundits belief that a turnaround is non-existent to way out there in time 6) In a word Capitulation that matches the bubble we had in 2000- In two words "Hopeless Capitulation". Hold with Confidence !!! Maintain a perspective of reasonable expectations for your trading skills - I never expect to sell perfectly at the top,nor do I expect to buy perfectly at the bottom. I ALWAYS do both to soon - I hope. I do think it is important for us to hold onto our humor as dwelling on failure is a prerequisite to bailing out at the perfectly wrong time during the capitulation. Last but not least if the above 6 occur - Buy like a mad man and then pray a lot.ggggg Bob