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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7393)	9/5/2001 10:58:28 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Johnny Q! >> Do wish I had waited another week to buy. Gave the average investor too much credit ..... << Q, with all due respect, you're being too smart. You're out-thinking the market. The economy is still in dire straights. The manufacturing numbers don't mean much to the average investor. This crash was tech oriented, not caused by manufacturing. Money is going to the sidelines as it should. There's still too much uncertainty about the economy and too much uncertainty in the market. We need to keep things simple Q! We don't need to be too smart. According to my simpleton analysis, when companies start showing profits, share prices will rise. Companies won't show profits until they increase capital spending. Capital spending won't increase until the rate cuts stop. There it is, the simpleton formula for success in today's market. Not enough people thinking on your level Q. You need the masses to join you before share prices will rise. Slow down and let the rest of us catch up. When we see the above formula coming to fruition, we'll be there with you pal, and we'll be there with bells on our toes. da-simple-bum

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7393)	9/5/2001 12:17:46 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Let there be no mistake about it, I never said I was doing WELL. Shorting goes against the grain for even the academic bears. I have been primarily in stocks that have done 'ok' and cash. Particularly in retirement accounts it's not been easy to do "well", and cash does not really qualify as doing well in my book. I spoke this morning with a manager who has quite a bias toward value as opposed to growth and allocated more heavily to value early last year. His comments were illuminating since he runs a fairly good slug of money. He is expecting a fairly good rebound based on technical indicators later in the year. What troubles me was his agreement on several issues I raised. He doesn't trust valuation metrics as he once did. He doesn't trust accounting reports like he once did. He agreed that his trusty ARMS index may be distorted because of the greater number of non-stocks in it. My take away is that even he feels he's flying blind right now. He brought up Kondratieff cycles and historical S&P valuations. These are not the subjects of confident men. mt