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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (17746)	9/5/2001 10:46:21 AM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Helene Meisler weighs in on TRIN talk thestreet.com ...let me expand on the passing comment I made on the 10-day Arms Index, or TRIN. I have read several times that the last time we had back-to-back TRIN readings of more than 2 was Oct. 16 and 19, 1987. That's all well and good, and yes, the exact low was on Oct. 20 that year, but we had a retest of those lows nearly six weeks later on Dec. 4. Even though the Dec. 4 low that year led to what appears to be a very good rally, the market essentially went nowhere for almost four years after the Crash of '87, if you take into account the highs of August '87. No, it didn't go back down to that 1620 low on the Dow, but we did not convincingly get through the August 1987 high of 2720 until the early part of 1991. (We managed to get back there in 1989 but slipped back under that level several more times for the next two years.) So for those who want to point to just one indicator as a signal, be sure you understand the sequence of events that occurred after such a signal in the past. In the 1987 instance, it might have been the exact low on an intraday basis, but you actually had the retest in December -- six weeks later -- to know you were right.