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To: carranza2 who wrote (14886)	9/5/2001 11:43:20 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

When you eat like an elephant, you .... like an elephant. So far the paquiderme has only eaten. Now he's digesting. The .... comes next. The Asian crisis was 'only' 813billion. It pales in comparision with the telecoms' orgy. There are lots of technologies and programs within large telecoms vendors that are moving by pure inertia. They will be curtailed when the paquiderme decides to lay a track of huge droppings. Look the write offs: NT (Promatory) and MONI (Fore) for instance, this is part of the digestive trackt of the paquiderme working in on his meal. Te lack of visibility is only that the droppings have not yet come out the animal. It is going to be visible and it is going to smell too!

To: carranza2 who wrote (14886)	9/5/2001 11:44:48 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 34857

What we are seeing it is not the end. It is not the beginning of the end. It is the end of the beginning. There is till a lot of pain to go through. The lack of visibility CEO's say about the market today, reminds me of the Portuguese immigrant joke. The final bad news is being fed in very small doses. A Portuguese immigrated to Brazil but could not afford to bring his cat along. He loved his cat and only his brother was trusted enough to take care of the feline. He kept sending him money to care and feed the cat. It went very well, and he got occasionally, letters about the cat's situation and even some pictures of the feline. Until one day he received a letter saying that unfortunately his cat had died. Despite all care, the cat -which was by then a bit old- was on the roof fell off and died with the injuries. The brother in Brazil sent him a letter saying that was not the way to disclose such bad news. He could have disclosed the whole situation but preparing for the final blow. sent a letter saying first that the cat had climbed the roof. Then that cat was walking on the roof. Then that the cat was walking too close to the edge of the roof. Then that the cat had lost balance followed by a letter saying the cat had fell off the roof. Then another saying cat looked in bad shape. And finally that the cat had not resisted the injuries and have died. This way, he told his brother, he would be prepared for the final blow and not be shocked. His brother replied he was sorry for disclosing such news and would be careful in the future. Six months later the Portuguese immigrant got a letter. It said simply: "Dear Brother, our mom climbed the roof." The market is behaving in the same way. Today we have reached the stage where 'the cat is walking in the roof'. But we know eventually it will be made public the cat fell off the roof top.

To: carranza2 who wrote (14886)	9/5/2001 12:36:46 PM
From: EJhonsa	Respond to of 34857

Telecom, particularly in Europe, is clearly in a financial pickle which makes dot.bombs look picayune by comparison. Many Americans, too. Including Sprint and Nextel: ccbn.secinfo.com See Pages 3 and 4: sprint.com By contrast, Vodafone, which has over 4x as many subscribers (on an investment-adjusted basis) as both of these companies combined, and has purchased IMT-2000 licenses in the two markets that made the auctioning of these licenses infamous, has long-term debts that are on par with Sprint's and roughly $2 billion lower than Nextel's, and also has several billion dollars in liquid equity investments to turn to. Meanwhile, they also had about $1 billion in operating cash flows in their last fiscal year after accounting for capex, as compared with the $1.8 billion and $1.5 billion losses reported by Sprint and Nextel in the first six months of this year. Eric