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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (17800)	9/5/2001 4:20:39 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

We'll be watching to see if your XAU breakout call works. It's getting close to the Rising Support line off this year's lows. Eyeballing it, looks like the line is around 53.5 to 54. If it can hold above there, I'll be looking to go long. Remember, it's not gambling unless you lose. <g>: markpoyser.com

To: Roebear who wrote (17800)	9/5/2001 4:23:07 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 52237

Roebear, >>>> It's a new model for me and might need some tweaking to say the least. Also going to be proprietary until I can properly define the parameters and make some money with it; I have to test drive it first, ggg. First public call is for the HUI/XAU to breakout strongly within the next ten market days. Probability is near 75% that it will be up, <<<< Calling a strong breakout is a tough call, and my belief is that at best the probability is at 62% when making a strong prediction. If you can really get a 75% probability on making strong calls, you will have something that maybe no one has. Im not saying that you cant do it, but if you can obtain that high of a level of probability in making a strong prediction, then you will have made a monster discovery. Please keep in mind that my short-term system does not make the big call, and the environment is actually a "closed set" so the probability level can be high. To get 75% probability on big calls is really something. If I had to guess, the better prognostigators can only achieve about a 40%-50% on the big calls, on a consistent basis. Sure we hear about those who called the 87 top, whereafter they were called guru's, but over time how many big calls did they really make. That brings me ABBEY J.COHEN. Many call her "THE MARKET GURU" and frankly, she didnt do that great of a job on the way up. If I recall correctly, during the huge run up in 1999-2000, she underestimated the top by alot, and totally missed the selloff. She also used the racheting-up technique, where once the target was met, she would just rachet up the target - which I dont consider good prognostigation. Good luck to you.