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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: advocatedevil who wrote (51515)9/5/2001 4:03:38 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
Looking at the details of yesterday's NAPM report gives a stronger image for the economy than the headline number implies...


Category
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Total Index
47.9%
43.6
44.7
42.1
43.2
Orders
53.1
46.3
48.6
45.5
45.9
Production
52.2
46.4
46.2
42.7
42.9
Employment
40.8
37.2
36.3
35.0
38.1
Deliveries
46.5
47.4
48.0
45.7
47.4
Inventories
37.7
35.8
40.8
38.7
39.6
Export Orders
51.9
48.2
45.5
45.6
47.3
Prices
33.9
38.7
42.3
45.2
48.9

Key Factors

50%+ levels in new orders and production (combined 55% weight)
leave the largest positive gain since 1996.
51.9% level in new export orders suggest some building strength from abroad.
Overall level still leaves a 13th month of sub-50%. August suggests
some significant softening in the sectoral recession.
Strong 6.8 point rise in new orders a real surprise given the continued
weakness in factory orders.
Employment index rose above 40% after 4 months below, will lag
improvement in overall index.
Prices paid fell to 33.9% from 65.7% at the start of the year.
Lessens severity of the profit squeeze.



To: advocatedevil who wrote (51515)9/5/2001 5:46:58 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
ST trading:

NVLS has lost it's strength, relative to AMAT, and returned to the LT pattern of lockstep movement.

It's still a bear market.

Nice bounce at support at 40, today, for AMAT

It's still a bear market.

On a log chart of the Nas, the current death of this, the third bear rally of this bear market, hasn't been quite as perpendicular as the previous two deaths. Of course, we haven't yet taken out the April lows, so the UnRally still has a chance to go perpendicular. If we find a floor without taking out those lows, I'll get really bullish (in a relative way); I'll bet everyone else does, too. That'll set us up for the 4th 50% rally in the SOX. And I'll even entertain the possibility that it isn't just another bear rally.

It's still a bear market.

The SOX (which AMAT is an excellent proxy for) is sitting right at an important support line, that has held since last December (except for that brief April plunge): siliconinvestor.com We either hold right here, or go on to those April lows.

It's still a bear market.

Something wrong with my calendar. It says September, but it sure feels like October. Actually, the only months we've had this year, have been January, April....and a lot of Octobers.

It's still a bear market (this is a recording).