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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7435)	9/5/2001 5:09:38 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

<< I guess I should concede the same. Neither a bull nor a bear here. >> We're starting to see worst case predictions now. JDSU at 3, INTC @ 12. I must admit that I am getting antsy here. I've put my eggs on the line based solely on one indicator that has never failed in it history to produce a major reversal. What if the ARMS Index expires this time without the reversal. If that happens, then I will need to re-evaluate what to do. It has been bugging me that many techs are still not what a reasonable person would call cheaply valued. I am going back to my days as a semicap investor picking up CYMI and ASYT at 0.5 BV, KLAC and AMAT @ about 1.7BV. ASYT at that time trading near cash value. But, if you look around, I guess there are techs trading at those levels of value. The ARMS index is now 14 trading days in since breaching the 1.5 threshold. Has a bottom been found yet? Maybe. The DOW is the index used to measure the effectiveness of the ARMS indicator. I see Day 11, Thursday August 30th - Closing low 9919, Intraday low 9829. Each trading day since, the Dow has made a foray into the 9800's. Each day turned back, each day higher than the last in terms of closing quote and intraday low. For the DOW, it may be over. The new bull may have commenced. Should the DOW continue to charge higher, I assume that the broad market will soon follow, NASDAQ after that. I shall take a wait and see before making any bold predictions, though. Warp

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7435)	9/5/2001 5:49:41 PM
From: hitsoft17	Respond to of 23153

John Q, I think the direction will turn shortly for the following reasons... -The economy is turning according to the Purch Mgrs index, less layoff announcements, inventory dropping to historical norms, BtoB's in Semi equipment turning up, retail sales stable at least, strong rate cuts with more in the bag, housing hanging in ( NOTE: the housing "price bubble is a non issue and boogyman bullshit, makes no difference to anyone really - you can't spend your house and if you already have equity loans it has no impact) -Technicals are turning with ARMS 10DMA bumping 1.50, VIX breaking 30, COMP approaching April lows, emormous short interest, great A-D. -The institutions are watching all this closely wondering how the hell they are going to beat thier competitors to the punch so they don't look like idiots 6 months to a year from now. ( remember Vinik ) -Valuations are reasonable with virtually zero inflation, low rates and decent profit picture twelve months from now. Hell , every stock I owned 12 months ago is down 50-70 %. Bubble or no bubble that is pretty much unpresedented. (I didn't hold them but somebody did). - Capitulation has already happened over the last few months. ( Hell, I've capitulated 5 times in the last year GGG)It is simply a bear's dream from this point forward and not likely. - When we do turn it will be violent because it will be the short squeeze to end all short squeezes. There really is a great deal of money that needs to be placed (and bonds are in deep stuff). The negative sentiment will not unwind totally in one swat but if 50% unwinds quickly it will drive alot of sharp price jumps. Right now we are experiencing the reverse of the topping process when NAZ was 5000. Refusing to believe good news now opposed to refusing to believe bad news at the top. Some calling for NAZ 1000 now as opposed to some calling for NAZ 7000 at the top. Ignoring the real valuations based on fundamentals, low now, high then. Ignoring the rate CUTS now as not relavant ( can't help capex)ignoring the rate INCREASES then as not relevant( Tech/ DOT COM companies don't need to borrow so no impact), nausea now opposed to euphoria then. In a nut shell, I believe we likely are very near the low point for the COMP and INDU. As the obnoxious professor used to say " Come early and leave early" Hitsoft17

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7435)	9/5/2001 9:09:03 PM
From: Sweet Ol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

JQP. I am one of the shorts you talk about. I simply look at the trends and short things that are going down and buy things that are going up. Sometimes I do both on the same stock as it goes up and down. In other words, "the trend is my friend" and I try not to swim upstream. Mostly I look at the TA, with some FA taken into account. I love stocks with big PEs that are in a steep downtrend. I think most shorts are doing the same thing. When the market turns around we will go long. I have a real hard time figuring out how to make money on the long side, but it has not been so hard once I convince myself that I could short the same as I could go long. There are a few differences and I think of them mostly as short term swing trades and I will be out of them when the conditions change. The alternative is to try to pick a bottom and buy ahead of it. People have been seeing a bottom for more than a year and yet the major indices are in down trends. There is no question that I will not be able to get out at the bottom because of the mad rush for the exits whenever it happens. But, I bet I can get out and get long at as good, or better price as you are doing by buying today. Different strategies designed for the same end. We can both win if we are careful and lucky. This turned into a long sermon, but I really just wanted to say that shorts are not some conspiricy, just someone else trying to make a buck in the market. Best to all, JRH

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7435)	9/6/2001 7:40:29 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

<< If the economic numbers were dismal or the short interests weren't steadily increasing then the selloffs would be understandable, but the data supporting a bottom has been seen is getting more solid by the day. i have not seen it.NAPM services today slashed apart any good spin bulls could spin on NAPM report of Wednesday. Jack Welch,he is a fair source for opinion would you agree? Jack Welch today in his retirement interview on NBC when asked did he see signs of recovery, he replied"None,None at all" Regards,shorts,if it was not for short covering rallies this market would have gone into a free-fall crash this week. People who blame shorters are simply looking for a scapegoat for something they have no effect on. Shorts do NOT crash markets,they supply a floor,they supply liquidity--without them you would be feeling a lot more pain than now,Max p.s. just wait until the indebted consumers start getting wise and slowing their spending. Then you will see real hell.