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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (7450)	9/5/2001 10:19:08 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

<< Warp, a question sir! If the ARMS tracks the DOW, wouldn't it be better to buy DOW stocks instead of NASDAQ stocks? >> The ARMS uses the NYSE market internals, not the DOW. What I meant was that when people document these prior occurrences of ARMS>1.5, the benchmark that I always see employed is how many days until the bottom is in. And it is always the DOW used as the index of choice. Probably because the NASDAQ didn't gain popular usage until the 80's. For example, in March of this year, the ARMS Index hit 1.5 on the 16th of the month. The DOW hit its low point 4 days after, and tested the low another two times. The 10 or 11 other instances of ARMS>1.5 since 1962 are always presented with "days until the DOW hits bottom". For reference, I will look at historical quotes for the NASDAQ to see how it fared in March. Whoa! it didn't bottom until the 4th of April, at 1620. This was 13 days after the ARMS 1.5 signal, and 9 days after the DOW bottom. If you remember in April, the NASDAQ rebounded violently, resulting in many stocks doubling in a short period of time. Dabum, you are correct that the DOW and NASDAQ move to different drummers. The low "may" already be in for the DOW this time around, but the NASDAQ could continue to meander downward for weeks. I myself anticipate that there is a good likelihood that the NASDAQ will bottom in the low 1600's, although I hope it would end sooner. I have bought NASDAQ stocks to about 50% of my portfolio under the assumption that we will get one of these explosive rallies off of the bottom. Yes, I admit that right about now my plan is not looking too good. But this is my plan and I need to see it through. If I see it though to the end and I fail, I will admit defeat, pick up the chips and regroup. But if instead I decide to bail out here and now in a moment of panic, and the market does get that bounce, I shall have a difficult time coming to grips with "what could have been". Can I ask you what you were doing with your investments when we went through this in March? Ditto for KB and the other bears? Did you board the NASDAQ train once it took off? Or stay out entirely. Warp