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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jane4IceCream who wrote (14240)	9/5/2001 9:29:44 PM
From: Bocor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

>>Tomorrow might be a bounce day>> One can only hope~

To: Jane4IceCream who wrote (14240)	9/5/2001 10:12:10 PM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

Hi Jane, I sort of feel the same way you do. Today seemed a lot like when the markets bottomed in early April. But we still have warnings season ahead of us. Maybe INTC won't guide lower and that'll be that. MSFT forward PE is now about 30, so they are getting respectable although still high by historical standards. BTW -- I'm watching Sampras and Agassi. Chris

To: Jane4IceCream who wrote (14240)	9/5/2001 11:20:18 PM
From: digitrader	Respond to of 208838

i agree, with everything swinging all over the charts, its really hard to predict the market from day to day. all the mixed news makes the situation even worse.

To: Jane4IceCream who wrote (14240)	9/5/2001 11:48:47 PM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 208838

1850 and 1950 will have to fall to convince me it's over. I see signs of a brief rally, followed by a down week that takes us back to 1700, then a Hell Week like occurred in April 2000. Institutional selling began in earnest on 6/30, and even though they'll buy oversold stocks now as each cycles down to a bottom, the selling is not likely to culminate before 9/28.... and isn't 9/21 witching day? That's the week we have to get past, 9/21-9/28. Thus, at each bottom as we stairstep down, look for big volume indicating bargain buys. Is it possible today was the bottom? Yes, about a 20% chance. But in a bull or bear market stocks have tended to run down till 3 weeks before earnings (at least), before starting an upward earnings run. Since the big names start reporting around 10/10, there should be downward pressure till 9/19 for the FIRST of these... and more likely till 9/25 to account for huge companies like INTC. For all these reasons, the odds remain highest that this is nothing more than the final step up (which could go as high as 1940ish) before the final step down. The rally tomorrow could be nice, however. I don't think we'll see a bottom above 1500 and realistically, I'm looking for a zone between 1250 and 1358 as the highest probability area to find a bottom. And if a major panic drops us below that, 1026-1102 is the lowest I can project as a worst case scenario. Of note: Sept 13, when ADBE & ORCL report. The rally that began this afternoon may herky-jerk to a peak around 9/11-9/13, imo, before the drift down that marks the final tumble. The safest and perhaps wisest thing to do is to wait till 9/28 or 10/1 to gain the sense that a bottom is in. Longs and shorts are likely to take some bruises in this period, so only the seriously addicted will seek an advantage mid such volatility. Cash.... and patience, rules.