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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patroller who wrote (5827)	9/6/2001 5:42:39 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Hi Patroller and Peter, We're now back to the March-April lows on Jabil. To my way of thinking the "bad news" is certainly more completely known now than then. My thought is that if it's that well known, then it's history. Where does that leave us for JBL? I bought more shares back around $22-$23 which now feels a bit silly, but then again, I'd sold an equal value of shares back a bit earlier in the low $30s. Usually I like to wait between purchases about a month or so when my cash reserves are as low as they are right now. It's tempting me to break that rule with the price in the low $18s. I know PQ has been stating that we'd be smart to hold off for a value around $14 and now it looks more possible. I think it would bode well to watch the volume on JBL in the near future and watch for accumulation patterns. I know this doesn't sound much like AIM, but I did TA and FA long before I started AIM. I don't have a problem attempting to learn from such tools along the way. Right now it would appear that JBL's suffering guilt by association with CPQ and HWP. Best regards, Tom

To: patroller who wrote (5827)	9/7/2001 4:12:27 AM
From: Asymmetric	Respond to of 6317

Short Term I Think We Bounce Just as longs expended a lot of bullets driving the market upward toward 5000 and overplayed their hand early last year, the shorts have been heavily shorting recently trying to tip the market over, and while they've driven the market down the last few days, my belief is they've expended quite a few bullets doing so, and have over reached and are now vulnerable to a short-term snapback. According to Street.Com Real Money column by Todd Harrelson, he's getting wind of institution's starting to bottom-fish. "Trading With Bud Fox 9/06/01 3:21 PM ET Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss. -Lou Mannheim, Wall Street. I hear ya Lou, but considering my menagerie, don't you think I've got enough characters? I mean, seriously -- my minyan's minyans are beginning to sprout minyans! Somebody help me! Berko -- take the capital away! This tape is ferklempt! Mama! Schizophrenia aside, we've got some serious decisions to make as we battle into the closing bell. Since my last post, I've begun to notice that the gorillas (institutions) are slowly starting to become more vocal -- and this is the sign that we've been watching for. Couple that with the short-term oversold nature of the tape, the high TRIN and put/call levels and the despair that's floating around, and it makes me want to ride Hoofs into the sunset... for a trade." Anyway, I went long a couple of trashed out tech stocks for short-term bounce. Not looking to hold anything long-term here. Will try to write more this weekend. Regards, Peter.

To: patroller who wrote (5827)	9/8/2001 6:57:54 PM
From: Asymmetric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Some thoughts on Jabil (And you thought I'd never get around to it <ggg>). To add to your post, my understanding is the new program wins that Jabil has picked up recently are estimated to eventually bring in as much as $500 million in new annual revenue. However, understandably due to uncertain economic conditions, when and how fast these programs ramp up is not certain. The incredibly poor financial shape Marconi is in, along with the recent executive upheaval and resignation of two top officers, does not bode for much in the way of business from there...and added to the terrible shape of the telecomm/networking area, any prospective ramp-up of business will continue to be disappointing over the near term from Marconi, IMHO. When the Financial Times runs an article telling senior executives at Marconi to come clean with shareholders,(about how poor a condition the company and it's business are really) what do you think the chances are they've been honest/truthful with Jabil management regarding the amount of business they'll be sending Jabil's way? The loss of Dell's laptop business to two Taiwanese contract manufacturers will definitely hurt, as right now everyone is fighting to hang onto what business they've got and this was a significant portion of Jabil's revenue overall. The merger of H-P and Compaq throws another curve ball at Jabil, as H-P, a large Jabil customer, has announced, concurrently a desire to consolidate down their number of contract manufacturers. While this could/should actually end up throwing MORE business Jabil's way, the market has to price in uncertainty and hedge their bet that it could possibly mean less business as well. Then of course if the HWP-CPQ precipitates further mergers, that ends up changing the entire playing field for everybody. Then the announcement by Sanmina of a significant revenues & earnings shortfall last week was like detonating a bomb in a crowded cafe of mutual fund and institutional managers. And when they get to running around panicked and scared, guys like me who are there to drink the house brand coffee (never mind the latte or the expresso!) and pick up a few crumbs to eat from the floor get run over pretty fast. To end I'll include a little story/blurb on the present CEO I found in the St Petersburg Times that was amusing: "As today's teenagers prepare for summer break, local executives recalled the sweat, low pay and long-lasting impact of their most memorable summer jobs. Timothy Main, president and chief executive Jabil Circuit Inc., St. Petersburg Tim Main was pedaling his bike frantically down a Kentucky road, dodging shotgun pellets, when he realized there was an easier way to make a living than selling Bibles and other books door to door. "It occurred to me that I should probably buckle down at school," said Main, who eventually graduated from Michigan State University with a major in economics and East Asian Studies. "I could see what life without education would be like." Despite being peppered with gunshot and bitten by dogs, Main, 43, doesn't regret the summer in 1978 when he carried a blue sample box on the back of his bike through the hills of Tennessee, Kentucky and southern Illinois. Sharing an apartment with three fellow book-hawkers, Main knocked on doors six days a week, 12 hours a day. A reference dictionary was $45.90; a layman's Bible, $24.95; a series of five children's book was a tough sell at $107. In his best week, Main sold $1,500 worth of books. By the end of summer, he had earned $1,000 despite frequent rejection. "The plan was you had to do 30 calls to get three sales, and that's pretty much the way it worked out," he said. "The hit rate is a little higher here at Jabil."