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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (7499)	9/6/2001 6:18:06 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 23153

The State of the Economy..... The Wall Street Journal had an article earlier this week quoting the incoming CEO of General Electric, Jeffrey Immelt. "We’re seeing no improvement in the industrial technology sector. We see Europe getting worse. We see Japan staying bad… In those areas of our portfolio that are tough, we have already started to plan for 2002. We can't see right now things getting any better so we're making plans accordingly." In short-cycle units he sees no or low growth and "no fundamental signs of it getting better." We may see a bounce on the INTC news, but I believe it'll be back to the same downward movement next week, or certainly the week after as earnings pre-announcements should be coming out. Anyone believe we'll see significant earnings growth in most sectors? dabum

To: chowder who wrote (7499)	9/6/2001 10:44:10 PM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

Dabum,KB I've made a critical decision here. I thank you all for your input these past few weeks, but I have decided to bail out of practically all of my positions in my taxable port. Why? Primarily because I will be attending some corporate training in Atlanta for the next two weeks, and not able to trade whatsoever. Although I've been pasted pretty good in the past few weeks, I have been able to take some sting out of my losses by using short term swing trades. Yesterday ONIS, I've currently got one with PHTN, a KWK short a time or two. By not being able to make these swing trades, I will be at the mercy of the market gods. Second The ARMS index bottom has not been put in yet for the DOW, unless today was it. Doubt it. Given this, I'd expect the DOW to put in a bottom in the next week or two. According to the" ARMS theory", the 20-day limit expires next Friday - meaning the bottom shall have been put in for the DOW by then, if the ARMS index indicator is to be faithful to history. The NASDAQ will probably follow a week or two after that - IMO. Most techs have been stairstepping downward in an orderly selloff, we have not seen the "Big Kahuna" yet. Yeah, some stock have been in freefall death spiral mode - ITWO for example. These stocks will death spiral some more. I've been watching the VIX, and have come to understand it a little better. It is evident that the VIX is only now starting to ratchet up. The frothy stage, characterized by wild intraday swings, is a good sign that capitulation is near. We're not there yet and I don't want to be sitting around in some foriegn city watching my portfolio shrink. As someone pointed out yesterday, the VIX appears to have a few weeks of hard work in front of it. So unless tomorrow produces a rip-snortin' reversal rally to end all rallies, I will be closing out my tech positions. Likely we will see the all too familiar pattern. Tonight the futures are all up, but when I wake up tomorrow I will see green arrows replaced with red. Note this applies only to my taxable port. I will ride out positions in my IRA's, not heavily invested there in tech anyway - still building. So I haven't entirely deserted Ed. Warp