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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pls418 who wrote (7515)	9/7/2001 12:09:23 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Pls418, Interesting point. Of course not everyone will stand aside and watch the capitulation and catch the bottom. Very few people wanted to buy the Naz last March, and I suspect very few will want to step up to the plate this October when the Naz is falling through the 1300 level and the only bottom anyone is sure of is zero. It's a question of emotions, and coolness at the throttle is what counts. But tech, although showing signs of cyclicality, is fundamentally different from oil. The world ran on oil in 1980, 1990, 2001 and will do so reliably into the future. Oil is a commodity and a required commodity. It is very hard to switch out of oil the way you can switch from lumber to concrete or beef to pork. What if INTC rolled out a new line of chips and the universe yawned (which is pretty much what is happening these days)? What if Lucent disappeared? Compaq is disappearing, does anyone care? A friend of mine was at a party with about 40 people and he told me that every single one of them still owned JDSU. And had owned it for a (painful) while. It'll come back, they said. But (see the WSJ yesterday) there are 1.32 BILLION shares of JDSU out there. It lost over $3 per share last year. Even if it earns money, when will there be a payout for it which is reasonable for a $6 stock (let's say it earns 10 percent, or 60 cents a share someday, that's almost $800 million dollars it has to earn--when will that happen?)? And what about the poor saps who bought at $140/share. When will they get a payout? If JDSU finally earns $800 million that poor sap will have an earnings return of 0.4 percent. Not a dividend, just a little electronic notation. I need gasoline for my car, natgas for my oven, propane for my bbq and petroleum products for a whole lotta stuffola. These needs are pretty close to absolute. What do I need JDSU's optics products for? What does anyone need Xerox's products for? Apparently nothing. Finally, a numerical note: if it takes your stock 4 years to double, assuming it goes from $20 - 25 - 30 - 35 - $40, that's not 25% per year, it's only 25% in the first year. By the fourth year it's only 14.3% Rough cut calculation is you have about a 19.65% annual return. Regards, Kb