ATTENTION....
HERE'S MY SUNDAY EVENING LAST WEEKS NEWSLETTER...IT'S SELF EXPANITORY...WHILE I'VE BEEN LOOKING FOR A BOUNCE HERE..THERE'S NO DOUBT WE'LL GET ONE "BEFORE" THE NEXT RE TEST OF THE LOWS...BEST OF LUCK TO ALL....
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED SEPT 3RD 20001
Hi everyone, hope your all rested and refreshed for the coming final 4 months of this horrible year in the markets.. and the real shame of it for those heavily under water since 1 1/2 years already there's MORE CARNAGE AHEAD!!!!!!....
Arlene and I had the most fun this 4 day weekend than the enitre summer...We met with friends, and had dinners together, we dunked and dived in the ocean too..Went to an Antique show, walked the Boardwalk in Ocean City for the fun of it..Gosh what a nostalgic scene that was...it really brought back a flood of memories as child...and as we drove home, i started to put my game face on for the morning ..she said" Jer, are you already there?" thinking about the next week"?....the answer was YES!!!! Reality sets in very fast now a days...
I hate to be the bearer of doom and gloom, but all the charts i'm looking at are so weak, and so awful there's no where to hide, no where to run...So what do you do, what do WE do...Well you better fasten your seat belts first...I thought Q 2 was going to be the worst Q of the last 10 years...Wrong!!! it's Q 4, forget Q3..thats worse than Q2 already and we havn't even gotten to earnings season yet...The information i'm getting is the Q4 will be even more damaging then the last 2...
This is not good for anyone suffering with those stocks that have dropped 70-80-90% of value since that Mar 2000 top....I know it's very hard for people to SELL those stocks now..thinking maybe this is the bottom...It's NOT!!!!...and while your still holding on for dear life, your presented with another very serious problem...Who's says your stocks will rebound in the coming rally next year and beyond???..This is a REAL dilemma for you i know...I would have preferred you had written those Covered Calls back in June/July that i pounded the table on heavily...or at the very least sold those dogs with fleas...You now need to sit down with your loved ones and make a serious decision right here and right now...
I already know that unless your able to raise some cash, to place that money in selected BETTER stocks for the next 2-3 years, your going to suffer greatly...I keep telling everyone, stocks UNDER $10.00 do not participate as well as those with better charts in better sectors...as in SEMIS & BIO Techs...right now they are the two stand alone bastions of strength in this very dismal market senario...and when this market turns up for good..the SEMIS will lead and the Bio techs will follow...it's that simple..I'm going to make a major investment in those 2 areas only during the coming Macro Cycle Lows this fall, Oct/Nov/Dec time frame...
After looking at all the charts tonight I can only say when the SOX index finally succumbs to massive selling, and breaks 520, this market will capitulate and completly fall apart...In fact there is a systematic cracking of ALL the major TECH stocks charts right before our eyes...One by one they are breaking down here...THIS FOLKS IS WHAT MAKES A MARKET BOTTOM...THE RELENTLESS SELLING OF THE LAST AND BEST STOCKS OUT THERE...IT'S ALREADY HERE...STARTING RIGHT NOW...LOOK AT MSFT---IBM---CSCO---QCOM..ETC ETC ETC..SOON TO FOLLOW WILL BE THE BELLWETHER SEMIS...AMAT--KLAC--NVLS(ALREADY MOVING LOWER) ETC ETC...As this last phase in the bottoming process continues thru the fall, we will begin to see what real capitulation is all about..WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE, AND LIVED TO TELL ABOUT IT, SURVIVE IT, AND PROSPER FROM IT...
Even though many people out there hate the SHORT SIDE OF THE MARKET, IT MATTERS NOT TO ME, OR TO YOU AS A TRADER...listen up here, I have been playing selected double bottoms and trading "COUNTER TREND RALLIES" quite successfully since the July 12th low...I've done this for a reason, to show you it can and should be used as a TOOL IN THE BATTLEGROUND WE THRIVE and work in...However, the short side of this market has been, and still will be the best way to make money going forward...After this expected rally I'll try to trade long..I'm going to heavily short this last blast lower with some serious PUTS & SHORTS,.,,at the TOP of my list will be the SMH..the Semiconductor Holders...I'll talk about this later on in this report....
ONE LAST MENTION TO YOU THAT ARE HOLDING STOCKS THAT ARE SERIOUSLY UNDER WATER...YOU NEED TO TAKE ACTION HERE...I AM VERY SORRY IF YOU DID NOT HEED MY WARNINGS 2-3 MONTHS AGO...IT'S NOT TOO LATE...AT THE VERY LEAST ON THIS NEXT RALLY..WRITE COVERED CALLS DEEP IN THE MONEY, AND COLLECT SOME HARD EARNED CASH..THIS IS A "MUST"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!..A MUST!!!!!!!!...PLEASE..DO NOT STAND THERE "HOPING, WISHING, PRAYING" FOR HELP...IT'S NOT COMING...NOT HERE, AND NOT NOW...
OK LET'S LOOK AT ALL THE INDEX'S, AND SELECTED CHARTS OF THE STOCKS WE LIKE TO TRADE...
DJIA---FINALLY BROKE DOWN, THIS INDEX BROKE A SPREAD QUADRUPLE BOTTOM..IT BLEW THRU MAJOR SUPPORT(S) AT 10,100...AND PLUNGED STRAIGHT DOWN FROM THERE...THIS INDEX IS A SHORT ALL RALLY TYPE CHART NOW...I FEEL THAT 10,150 WILL BE HARD R(RESISTANCE) OVERHEAD...NEXT DOWNSIDE TARGET OFF ANY RALLY WILL BE 9600/9750 THE APRIL LOWS...
NAZ--COMPX---THIS INDEX HIT MY DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 1800...NOW 1950 WOULD BE A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...CAN IT EVEN DO THAT????1650 A GIVEN, AND MAYBE EVEN WORSE...THAT WILL BE A CERTAIN TEST FOR SURE..MY GUESS IT WILL NOT HOLD...
NDX---100 POINTS AWAY FROM THE APRIL LOWS AND WE HAVEN'T EVEN HAD A CAPITULATION BLOWOFF YET???..BET ON IT..IT WILL HAPPEN..I ENVISION A BREAK OF THE APRIL LOWS...1600 WOULD BE A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...WE'LL SEE...
SOX---THE FINAL FRONTIER, THE ONLY REAL INDEX OF ANY STRENGTH...REMARKABLE IN LIGHT OF ALL THE "OTHER" CHARTS OF THE INDEXES AND STOCKS...THERE'S VERY HEAVY SUPPORT AT 540 AS WE ALL KNOW...520 IS DEATH AND DESTRUCTION FOR THIS ENTIRE MARKET, "AND FOLKS LOOK WHERE WE'RE AT NOW"????? CAN YOU IMAGINE THE BREAKDOWN OF THIS INDEX??? 520 IS THE FINAL NAIL IN THE COFFIN FOR THESE MARKETS..460 WILL HAPPEN ON THAT BREAK...A 620 PRINT HERE WOULDN'T SHOCK ME, I AM PLAYING LONG THE SEMIS AND THE SMH FOR A TECHNICAL BOUNCE RIGHT HERE..BUT WITH TIGHT STOPS...IF IT EVER GOT TO 640 IT WOULD BE A MIRACLE....
SPX---THIS CHART IS A DISASTER, IT HAS GIVEN 3 CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNALS OFF THE MAY 22ND TOP OF MAJOR PROPORTIONS...IT HAS BROKEN EVERY DOUBLE BOTTOM IN THE LAST 45 DAYS...THIS LAST BREAK WAS EVEN MORE WEAK THAN THE OTHERS TOO...I THINK WE MIGHT GET TO 1160 ISH AREA AS 1169 IS THE 20 EMA ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART AND A GREAT SHORT THERE FOR SURE...SO WE COULD GET A BACKSIDE BOUNCE, OR DCB(DEAD CAT BOUNCE FIRST)..AND THEN LOOKOUT BELOW...DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1090/1080...WE HAVE FALLEN 59 CONSECUTIVE POINTS FROM 1185 TO 1126...LOOK FOR A 30 POINT RALLY HERE NEAR 1160 IF IT CAN GET THERE...
VIX---WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE VIX DID IN FACT PRINT 29...THIS WAS A QUADRUPLE TOP BREAKOUT FOR THIS INDEX..AND THAT'S VERY NEGATIVE GOING FORWARD...THE BIG $64,000 QUESTION IS THIS...WILL IT ROLL OVER AND DOWN AGAIN BEFORE IT EXPLODES UP AND OVER THE TOP???..OR WILL IT JUST RALLY UP AND NEAR 32/33 RIGHT NOW!!!! THIS WEEK SHOULD ANSWER THAT QUESTION...ONLY DA SHADOW KNOWS FOR SURE<VBG>...
BTK---THIS INDEX AND OTHER INDICATORS WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE BIO TECHS HAVE ACTUALLY REVERSED UP HERE..AMAZING AS THAT SOUNDS IT'S TRUE????...THE INDEX HIT THAT DOUBLE TOP AT 550 AND IS MOVING LOWER HERE TO A 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN AT 520...500 IS OK SUPPORT FOR NOW...THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF ALL INDICATORS IN THE BIOS IS POSITIVE...A BIG SURPRISE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO WE WATCH THIS INDEX FOR CLUES THIS WEEK...I'LL GO OVER SOME BIO'S LATER...
SMH---I AM LONG HERE AT 43.05, STOP OF 41 3/4...WHY 41 3/4??? YOU ASK??? WELL LEMME TELL YA<VBG>...BECAUSE ANY BREAKDOWN OF 42 IS A MAJOR, HUGH BREAKDOWN IN THIS INDEX...MAJOR...I DON'T THINK IT WILL HAPPEN UNLESS THE SOX ROLLS OVER HARD HERE...IF IT DOES HAPPEN, I AM BUYING NOV 45 PUTS FOR A POSITION TYPE TRADE...AND WILL ADD TO THIS SHORT IF WE RALLY UP...IN FACT..IF WE DO RALLY UP HERE..I'LL BUY THOSE PUTS ONCE I'M OUT OF MY LONG SIDE TRADE...I HAVE A DOWNSIDE TARGET OF 34...I THINK WE CAN ALL MAKE A SOLID TRIPLE IN PROFITS USING THIS INDEX AND THOSE PUTS..SYMBOL...SMH WI...NOV 45'S..PUTS...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RALLY FIRST THO SINCE I 'M LONG<G>...
AND LET ME ALERT YOU ALL TO AN IMPORTANT MEETING THIS WEEK ON SEPT 6TH..INTC CORP HAS IT'S MID QUARTER UPDATE..THIS ALONE SHOULD BE WORTH THE PRICE OF ADMISSION TO SEE WHAT'S UP??? OR DOWN???
OK LET'S CHECK OUR STOCKS..FIRST ARE THE STOCKS I AM LONG..
NVDA---THIS STOCK IS BEHAVING WELL...SO FAR..IT'S HELD TRIPLE BOTTOM SUPPORT AT 81 WHICH BTW IS WHERE THE BSL LINE IS..THAT'S THE "BULLISH SUPPORT LINE"....AREA...IT HAS A PERFECT 3 STICK PATTERN ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART TOO...ONE THAT I TRADE "ALL" THE TIME FOR RELIABLITIY...CHECK IT PLEASE...I AM LONG AT 83 3/4...STOP 82 ,,,,ACTUAL BUY TRIGGER IS 85 1/2...SHORT SALE TRIGGER IS 83 3/4....
ELNT---PLEASE CHECK THAT AWESOME DAILY CANDLE CHART...LOOK AT THAT 4 STICK PATTERN..A DOJI, FOLLOWED BY A BEARISH BAR, THEN A HANGING MAN WITH A NICE LOWER TAIL, AND THEN ANOTHER DOJI, WITH A TAIL..MEANING BUYERS ARE THERE AT AROUND 37...I AM LONG AT 37 1/2...STOP 36 1/4...FEELING OK RIGHT HERE...BUY TRIGGER LONG HERE IS AT 38 3/4...SHORT SALE(SS) TRIGGER AT 36 3/4...40 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP HERE...
RFMD---NICE TRADING STOCK SO FAR..WE ALL MADE GOOD MONEY TRADING THIS ONE..ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART IT MADE A PIERCING PATTERN AND THEN A DOJI...IT MUST TRUST UP NOW OR SEE YOU LATER..I AM LONG THIS ONE AT 25 1/2..STOP AT 24 1/4...THE BUY TRIGGER LONG IS AT 26 3/4...THE SHORT SALE(SS) IS MY STOP AT 24 1/4...
KLAC---STILL IN A BOXED TRADING RANGE...46 THE LOWS, 52/53 THE RECENT HIGHS BUT A SOLID TRADABLE SEMIS... I AM LONG AT 48 1/4 STOP AT 47...THE BUY TRIGGER IS 50 1/4...51 IS ANOTHER 3 BOXER BACK UP...47 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER...
MU---GOSH WHAT A PREDICTABLE STOCK..BUYERS STILL THERE SO FAR AT 36ISH..AND SELLERS AT 43/44..AMAZING...I AM LONG THIS STOCK AT 37 1/4 STOP AT 36...SOLID BUY TRIGGER AT 38 1/2...SS TRIGGER AT 36 1/4...
HERE'S THE REST OF THEM...
AMAT---SAME CHART AS KLAC....BUY TRIGGER IS AT 44 1/4...SS TRIGGER AT 41 3/4...45 3 BOX REVERSAL UP...41 IS BAD...
TQNT---DOUBLE DOJI AT 21 HERE DAILY CANDLE CHART...22 1/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...WAIT FOR IT...ACTUALLY 19 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER...20 IS GOOD S...
MCHP--SOLID DAILY CANDLE CHART WITH A NICE 3 STICK PATTERN "ABOVE" THE 200, THE 40 AND THE 20 EMA..."THIS" IS THE TYPE OF STOCK TO TRADE LONG...36 3/4 MY BUY STOP LONG SIDE TRIGGER....SHORT SALE SS TRIGGER AT 34 1/2...
QCOM--IT HAS BROKEN DOWN HERE ON A TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK...59 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...57 3/4 THE SS...ANY RALLY BACK UP HERE IS A SHORT..
GENZ--WHAT A NICE TRADABLE STOCK...ABOVE ALL TIME FRAMES ON THE DAILY...57 1/2 MY BUY STOP LONG SIDE TRIGGER...55 1/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER..
PDLI--I CALLED PDLI A SHORT IN THE ROOM LAST FRIDAY AT AROUND 60-61...WATCHING FOR AN ENTRY LONG, MARKET WILLING...59 3/4 THE BUY STOP LONG...57 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER..
CCMP--MAJOR LEAGUE TRADER HERE...REVERSED DOWN OFF A NICE TRIPLE TOP AT 77 HIT 81 AND THEN FELL ALL THE WAY BACK TOWARD SUPPORT...AROUND 69ISH...71 3/4 MY BUY STOP TRIGGER...68 3/4 THE SS...
GSPT--I AM LONG THIS STOCK AT 14.70 VIA BUY STOP...I NOW HAVE A SOLID STOP GAIN IN AT 15 3/4...I DO NOT LIKE THE LAST 3 STICKS AS THEY ROSE ON CONTRACTING VOLUME...IF I GET STOPPED OUT I AM SHORTING THIS STOCK...BUY TRIGGER LONG HERE AT 18 1/4....SS TRIGGER MY STOP AT 15 3/4...
EBAY---MY OLD FRIEND...IT'S GIVEN 5 CONSECUTIVE SELL SIGNALS ...IS IT DONE YET???..ALL RALLIES WERE SHORTS...57 1/4 MY BUY STOP TRIGGER LONG...SS TRIGGER IS AT 55 1/4...
NSM--SOLID 3 STICK PATTERN ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART...MY BUY STOP TRIGGER LONG IS AT 34 1/4...LET THESE STOCKS COME TO YOU..IF THEIR VALID...MOVES...31 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER WITH 30 A NO NO...
MYGN---CHART LOOKS WEAK TO ME HERE...MUST TAKE OUT 44 1/2 BUY TRIGGER....42 1/2 THE BIG SS TRIGGER HERE...
IDPH---THE 20 & 40 EMA MIGHT PULL THIS ONE BACK HERE...60 1/2 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG..WITH A BREAK OF 63 A SWING TRADE PLAY....BUT...58 THE SS TRIGGER...MIGHT TAKE IT ALL THE WAY BACK TO 55...
HGSI---NEAR THE LOWER PART OF IT'S TRADING RANGE...45 3/4 THE GOOD BUY STOP TRIGGER FOR ME...43 1/4 THE SS TRIGGER WITH ANY BREAK OF 41 A SWING SHORT...
GILD...THE STOCK WAS OVERBOUGHT AT 63, IT'S PULLING BACK RIGHT NOW....61 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER...59 1/2 THE SS WITH ANY MOVE BELOW 58 A GOOD SWING SHORT TRADE..
IBM---BROKE IMPORTANT SUPPORT AT 100 LAST WEEK...AND THAT SPELLS BIG TROUBLE AHEAD FOR BIG BLUE...WAIT FOR 101 1/2 FOR THE LONG SIDE TRIGGER...98 3/4 THE SS TRIGGER...
IMCL---THE STOCK BREAKSOUT ON A TRIPLE TOP AT 49 RUNS RIGHT UP TO 54 AND HAS REVERSED BACK DOWN..NORMAL FOR THE TRIPLE TOP...52 1/2 MY BUY STOP TRIGGER LONG...50 1/4 THE SS...55 A BIG BREAKOUT AREA..
INTC---MID Q REPORT ON THE 6TH..DO OR DIE ON THE CHARTS...28 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG...30 A REVERSAL UP HERE...26 3/4 MY SHORT SALE TRIGGER..AND ANY PRINT BELOW 26 A BIG BREAKDOWN...I'LL TAKE THAT SHORT...
PMCS--IN A MAJOR TRIANGLE ON P&F...31 3/4 THE BUY TRIGGER LONG 33 A 3 BOX REVERSAL UP...I'LL TAKE THAT TRIGGER LONG...29 1/4 THE SHORT SALE TRIGGER SHORT..I'LL TAKE THAT ONE TOO...ANY WHICH WAY WILL BREAK THIS TRIANGLE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER
WELL THATS IT FOR NOW...
I SENT AN E-MAIL OUT TO ALL SUBSCRIBERS ABOUT RENEWALS..THIS IS THE BIGGEST TIME FRAME FOR THOSE TO HAPPEN..PAYPAL IS SUPPOSED TO HAVE SET IT UP AS RECURRING FOR THIS MONTH..I HAVE NOT GOTTEN EVERYONE'S RENEWALS TO DATE..FOR THOSE THAT ARE "NOT" RENEWING..THANKS FOR YOUR INTEREST AND BEST OF LUCK..BUT..PLEASE LET ME KNOW...FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT WERE TO RENEW AUTOMATICALLY???..IF NEITHER OF US GOT CONFIRMATION, THEN IT DID NOT HAPPEN..PLEASE CHECK WITH PAYPAL..THERE NUMNER IS..402-935-7733..AND LET THEN KNOW YOU WISH TO BE ON RECURRING BILLING TILL FURTHER NOTICE...I HATE BOOKKEEPING...ALSO, ASK THEM RIGHT THEN AND THERE HOW YOU CANCEL...
BEST OF LUCK THIS WEEK...
WARM REGARDS
JERRY |
