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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (41032)	9/7/2001 9:14:28 AM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

M A R K E T .. S N A P S H O T -- Larger payrolls drop to ignite sell-off By Julie Rannazzisi, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 8:59 AM ET Sep 7, 2001 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- An unexpectedly large drop in August payrolls coupled with a jump in the unemployment rate spooked investors Friday and sent the futures markets spiraling lower. Non-farm payrolls fell 113,000 in August vs. the 42,000 that had been expected by economists polled by CBS MarketWatch.com. The jobless rate shot up to 4.9 percent from July's 4.5 percent and the expected 4.6 percent rate. That's the highest level in more than four years and a full percentage point above the low set last November. And average hourly earnings rose by an as-expected 0.3 percent. and check economic calendar and forecasts. "A report like this was overdue: The recession of 1990 saw nine months -- including seven straight -- in which payrolls fell by more than 100,000. Friday's data mark only the second 100,000-plus drop this time around. On the unemployment rate, the stability of the past few months made no sense at all and a correction was inevitable," commented Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. "This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely. But it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery at all. Falling employment/rising unemployment lag activity. Rising unemployment will depress consumers' view of the current economy but tends not to affect expectations much, and that is what drives future spending. The real clues to the outlook for the economy are in the NAPM," Shepherdson said. Checking the futures markets, September S&P 500 futures slumped a significant 9.60 points, or 0.9 percent, and were trading about 13.70 points below fair value, according to figures provided by HL Camp & Co. And Nasdaq slid 13.50 points, or 1.0 percent. Before the jobs numbers hit wires, tech stocks showed some relief as Intel maintained its financial targets in a much-anticipated mid-quarter conference call. The chip bellwether (INTC) said late Thursday that third-quarter revenue would be "slightly below the midpoint" of its target range of $6.2 billion to $6.8 billion. Thomson Financial/First Call had expected revenue of $6.4 billion and sees earnings-per-share of 10 cents. Intel CFO Andy Bryant said during the company's mid-quarter conference call that while there's still risk, he's as "comfortable" as he can be with the third quarter following the strength seen in July and August. But Intel stressed that September remains critical for the quarter. Intel shares rose 50 cents to $26.60 in Instinet dealings before the official opening bell. Other companies in the semiconductor group notched gains as well. Texas Instruments (TXN) edged up 30 cents to $29.80 in Europe while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 20 cents to $11.60. . Meanwhile, Lehman Bothers' Holly Becker lowered her 2002 revenue and EBITA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortization) estimates in AOL Time Warner. She believes the stock's (AOL) near-term performance will be held back by softness in the advertising market and a resulting lack of earnings visibility. Still, Becker said she views AOL Time Warner as the premier media company and said it remains the most attractive long-term holding in the group. On the fund flow front, Trim Tabs estimated that all equity funds had outflows of $10.7 billion in the week ending Sept. 5 compared with outflows of $6.0 billion in the prior week. And equity funds that invest primarily in U.S. stocks had outflows of $8.7 billion compared with outflows of $5.0 billion the previous week. Finally, bond funds had inflows of $2.0 billion vs. inflows of $900 million during the prior week. Treasury focus Treasurys flew, adding to already lofty gains on Thursday, after the ugly jobs report signaled that the Federal Reserve has more work to do on the interest arte front. The 10-year Treasury note rallied 25/32 to yield ($TNX) 4.77 percent while the 30-year government bond put on 24/32 to yield ($TYX) 5.365 percent. In the currency sector, the dollar fell when the morning data hit the tape after registering modest gains earlier on. The greenback shaved 0.3 percent to 120.57 yen while the euro ascended 0.8 percent to 90.21 cents. Japan's economy contracted in the fiscal first quarter. In fact, gross domestic product fell 0.8 percent in the April to June quarter -- the first shrinkage since the July-September quarter of 2000. While the GDP number matched economists' predictions, stocks and the yen faltered on the news.

To: Jill who wrote (41032)	9/7/2001 10:57:11 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

Formula for Predicting a Market Bottom... Message 16313075 Best Regards, Scott

To: Jill who wrote (41032)	9/10/2001 6:45:55 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

General Commentary -from briefing.com... On the surface there was nothing spectacular about Monday's session, unless, of course, you are so depressed by the relentless decline over the past month that a 8 point gain now qualifies as an exciting development... All joking aside, there were some reasons to get excited about yesterday's action. First, the Volatility Index (VOX) moved to a level recently associated with short-term bottoms... Second, although the number of stocks setting 52-wk lows on the Nasdaq trounced the number establishing new highs, up volume exceeded down volume... Third, Qwest (Q) rallied nearly 10% despite issuing a profit warning... Fourth, a few chip companies reaffirmed guidance, suggesting that the upcoming warning season might not be as negative as investors currently fear. While none of these developments guarantee a near-term rebound, taken together they provide the most convincing argument for a recovery rally we've seen in weeks... So if the sector is finally about to turn higher, which stocks will lead? For some ideas, see yesterday's Story Stock on Volatility issued by my colleague Pat O'Hare... Some other names to consider include Openwave (OPWV), Checkpoint (CHKP), EMC (EMC), Nokia (NOK), Sun Micro (SUNW), Siebel Systems (SEBL) and Veritas (VRTS). Robert Walberg