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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (34104)	9/7/2001 1:25:53 PM
From: shasta23	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69352

Jim! I know that they go below the mark! The people who go short on the marginal new low are the fuel (since they cover) for the "spring"(e.g.hammer under support)! But tests do fail and the trend simply continues! Ranges do not hold forever. The April low does not have to hold and we could simply start a new leg down. My idea was that since everybody is expecting a successful test of the april low(at least initially successful) wouldn't it be surprising to see that low fail. That would induce some panic! When i see how stocks like RFMD and TQNT behave then i still don't see enough panic for a bottom...they are not giving it away yet thanking me for taking the painful stock off their hands. There is still a lot of hope for this to be the bottom and maybe that hope needs to be shattered. Look at the 5min chart of the DOW to see how orderly this decline is executed.Nice tight little candles. THat's not panic. OK, gotta go to work now...all have a good weekend! Stefan

To: j g cordes who wrote (34104)	9/7/2001 3:37:59 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69352

Hi Stefan, At this point I agree with you on the break of the April low. I don't expect it to break on this test though. The sell off is still too orderly as you ahve noted. We are down about 5 percent over 4 days on the COMPX. That is not enough built up energy to get a strong rally. We will need some good fundamental news to do that right now. The scenario I am work from is: Trend down till options expiration. Attempt to rally afterwards, as mutual fund managers try to make their picks look good for the end of qaurter. Collapse to re-test low in early October as mutual fund manager exit positions in light of uncertainty of earnings season. Break of April look in October as fund manager take care of tax loss selling for the year, results of a traditionally weak quarter and continued low visibility. I am not sure what kind of effect this will have this year. Many funds have no capital gains to offset with tax loss selling.