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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (54140)	9/7/2001 4:20:43 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

wanna bmw: "How do you figure? I don't see much of an upside for a long time." I saw where inventory margins have turned positive for 2 successive months after over 12 months of negative inventory marins...In the PC industry, of course much of this change is attributed to the seemingly ever declining ASP's...My point is that additional ASP price declines are no longer necessary for the OEM, if in fact inventory margins are now positive...Any increase in PC demand could see a fairly rapid hardening in ASP's... Positive inventory margins may signal that the bottom is now in...Another couple of months of positive data would probably confirm such...

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (54140)	9/7/2001 5:07:06 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Wanna, Re: <I don't see much of an upside for a long time.> Trying laying the last 4 years October 1 to January 1 charts over each other to see if there's a trend. (From my point of view it looks like a doubles or better in '96-'97, '98-99 & '99-'00, with loss of 40% in '97-98 & '00-'01. In each of the loss cases, however, you'd have been ~ even by March on a hold.) In short, swings of 100% up and 50% down are about par for the course for this stock in the last Q. I would have really have liked to have picked up those calls today & think I'd have gotten them if AMD had gone down another $0.05. tgptndr