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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: thecalculator who wrote (26571)9/7/2001 7:43:06 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 30051
 
How come these five investors are 107% of the "class" of stock? These are future shares not all yet included in the June report. But that is of little importance, you asked why is TSEM valued at only $200 MM, well their current book value is $220 MM, the $1.1 B fab will cost much more before it is operational (read all the 20F and see how many places the warn you of potential costs overruns), a good chunk of that cost ($550 MM) is going to be debt, TSEM will have losses all this year and all next year (about another $50 MM total?), and the market does not like to value a company on a future plant that "may" produce goods some 18 months down the road. When the plant is finished, the balance sheet will reflect about $1 Billion in assets and $550 MM in debt and the $250 MM in grants, and the book value (depending on the number of shares then outstanding, since at least another 190 MM must be raised) of about a net of $500 MM) will have to be divided over the number of shares then outstanding, my guess is that that will be a minimum of 30 MM shares. That yield a future BV of about $17 per share and in a better market, TSEM could be valued at twice that figure (if the losses are not too great) or $30 to $34 as I have suggested to you months ago when I suggested waiting for a buy until the price drops under $10/share.

Stating that this company is a sure thing is absolutely misleading, it is a start up company in one of the most difficult market segments with a lot of things that can go wrong (remember Murphy) in the best case, and very wrong in less than the best case.

Zeev