Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (7563)	9/7/2001 9:17:46 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 23153

It looks like a buyer's strike! stockwerld.com dabum

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (7563)	9/8/2001 1:08:37 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Gentlemen - When I bought into the oil patch in 1999, I did so a little after oil prices had started to rise, and so I missed absolute stock bottom, which for many stocks occured BEFORE the price of oil lifted from $ 8.00. In doing so, i missed the bottom, and this limited my average return over about 15 months to 40- 50 % , instead of near 2x. My objection to buying telecom equipment builders here (which I will try to articulate somewhat better) is two fold - 1) I don't know which telecom & equip suppliers will survive. Some oil and gas companies went BK, some got bought cheap, and bought for cash or lousy stocks, and so only achieved limited returns. >>>Lots of these companies are still controlled by VCs (sometimes the same VCs), and I would not be surprised if they do something really cute that doesn't help the average shareholder. <<< 2) If you buy before the bottom, you get to wait longer and don't get the growth AND (if you use margin) have less buying power for a period of time (when there might be more bargins) A big part of this is I don't know how to pick the winners in this space, not being that familar with telecom equip and the companies. I should learn, since I'm a EE in Silicon Valley. ;-) Double in 4 years is about 1.20 **4 or 20 % IF it can up 2.4 times, that's close to 25% I would be happy with either return.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (7563)	9/8/2001 3:40:43 AM
From: pls418	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

kodiak bull, The point was not comparing the oil business to tech. The point was simply that at the bottom of any decline they say its dead and probably will not return for years, as they did in oil and are doing now in telecom. As for the 25% average you are assuming in that 4 year span that there were profits in the first 3 years and you are compounding. Besides that it was just an off the hand statement, I find it hard to believe anyone would make an issue of it as far as JDSU there is a whole lot of difference between paper loses and actual cash loses. Check your own web site and scroll down to quarterly earnings surprises. yahoo.marketguide.com as for me I am far to busy for this. Take care.