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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul A who wrote (13551)	9/8/2001 1:40:59 AM
From: Blue On Black	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

OT Random Musings From A Hick In The Hinterland... First off.... Paul, I will assume that you are interchanging 'flies' with 'lures'. It doesn't count unless it is on a flyrod....unless we are talking about serious fish. Come to think of it, a 3lb smallie IS a serious fish.....more bounce to the ounce and a serious, serious attitude problem..... Secondly... Bounce,bottom, or punt... Numbers....and more numbers....we all have numbers. Most of us look at the same numbers. Data to be digested. Given that....we get data everyday and we don't we realize it is data. I am a man that notices things....is it things worth noticing? Damifino. I noticed that some analyst on Bloomberg this morning pointed out that if you really looked at the NAPM numbers, the manufacturing part was up very slightly (and this is good)...it was the service part of the NAPM that was severely down. I noticed that I thought But haven't we been told for years that the US is moving to a 'service economy'....Isn't that a cornerstone for the whole "NEW ECONOMY" mindset? I notice that 'Houses for Sale' part of the local newspaper is 30%-50% larger than I have noticed before... Does that mean anything? It's a rural, southern area. Maybe...maybe not. How is your locale? Then I notice the large 'national' type companies that have plants here announced layoffs. Does it mean anything? Maybe...maybe not. We all watch the same feeds from the same sources. I am in a tourist area. Not my problem, I drive 10 miles off of the highway and then another 5 miles of gravel roads to get home. But since I am in the middle of three major lake and one major river and on a byway for several major tourist/gambling/scenic attractions, I notice things... I notice that the RV (read 38+ ft homes away from home) is about 1/4 of what it has been in previous years. I view these as a wealthy/secure type people... where did they go? Why? They don't live here so is it a view of other local economies? Does that mean anything? Maybe...maybe not. I notice that some people that I meet once a year to hunt/fish with in Colorado aren't going this year. Does it mean anything? Maybe...maybe not. I notice that I am pulling all trading profits into CDs and money market at the end of every month. Does it mean anything? Probably not since I am thinking of getting cash to buy cheap real estate if things continue on a similar path. But what if others are thinking...... I notice that Tom is getting bullish. I have noticed for several years that Tom is very,very good. I have noticed that Tom has some serious views and serious reasons for those views. I, also, noticed that Tom is calling for a Naz of 2000+/- 500 out to about 2004. Does it mean anything? Maybe...maybe not. But with Tom making a call, I am not unwinding any shorts BUT...but....I am looking at some compelling values that he is pointing out. I think that we have a 2-4 week diference in timing.... I notice that I will be here to trade that +/- 500.... Then M3 and M5 comes up....Do they mean anything? And then energy. You can cut interest to 0....doesn't matter. The basis is 1/2? of what it was. Do you see it in your home loan. Do you see it in your credit card? Then we come to my crux...sticking point...whatever....Energy. Do you notice energy every time you fill your vehicle? Do you notice it every time the utility bill arrives? Yes. Do you notice it with every purchase that you make? There is some type of energy involved in everything whether it be in making it or transporting it. Probably not. Life is energy. The economy is energy. Where are energy costs going? Will $300 to $600 offset it? Does it mean anything? Maybe...maybe not. And I notice that I notice too much... It's a serious fault. lee