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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (8643)	9/8/2001 11:52:07 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 57684

hi Eugene, I said the "entire market" is at 16. You can look it up. The pe on the Russell 3000 was just under 17 on Monday and has gotten lower since i have never heard anybody refer to the Russell 3000 as the "entire market". typically, one would talk about the Wilshire 5000, which had a PE of 30 last i checked. i do not think it was out of place for me to discuss the S&P500 PE, since you brought it up yourself (w/r/t its PE in 74), and since most people on SI seem to be interested in large-cap growth, for which the S&P500 is something of a proxy. You are way too bright to site the S&P 500 as representative of the market. and you are way too bright to cite the Russell 3000. the wilshire 5000 is widely recognized as the total market index. it has more than 7000 stocks in it as i recall--basically all publicly traded US equities--as opposed to just 3000 in the Russell 3000. f you are a momentum shorter, this is your moment in time, i have no need to try risky shorting strategies--i am too conservative for that these days. i would think you, too, would be wise to be careful. you don't really think you need a Formula 1 team in addition to a stock car team, do you -gg-. I would give it about a 75% probability that the nasdaq sees 3250 within 2 years. is this just off the top of your head? i would be curious what figures you use to reach this value and the 75% probability. i will not rule out naz 3250 in 2 yrs, simply because that is a short time period and the short run is difficult to game. but over a more extended period of time, i think the weight of reality will continue to pressure the equity markets to weak returns for many years (unless we get a really violent selloff, but it seems that controlled bleeding is the way of the markets these days...2% this week, 2% that week, and pretty soon you're talking real money!). the thing about your 3250 forecast that i would take exception with (in addition to casting a skeptical eye toward your 75% probability figure) is that the market looks fundamentally overvalued even at current levels, and it seems unlikely that fundamentals will appreciate enough in 2 yrs to justify a near doubling in nominal prices. thus, one is left to fall back on speculative returns--i.e., an expansion in multiples back to bubbly froth days. maybe that could happen, but i'm not betting on it. BTW, i am not a shorter and was 100% value stocks for the first half of the year. i cashed out in late july with a 15% gain YTD and now expect to remain mainly cash and bonds for some period of time. i expect my greatest challenge to be patience before stepping back into equities. it may take ten years before it is worthwhile, and two years at a minimum, in my opinion.