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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (143131)	9/8/2001 1:46:03 PM
From: COMMON_SENSE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

The problem, Jim, will be the pe ratios I totally agree that the comparative year on year numbers will be very favorable in 2002, but I also believe that earnings will need to improve for the stocks to go much higher. One thing I am sure of - analysts will be held in the same regard as used car salesmen, attorneys and politicians. Can you imagine the fear when people open their brokerage or 401 statements this week and see that their portfolios have shrunk another 20% this month. That is on top of the 60% or more they shrunk up till now. If that money is their only retirement fund, it will absolutely devastate a person's confidence in investing in stocks. I think a great many people are sitting on stocks that are so depressed they don't dare sell, but if the stock tries to climb out of the grave and price start to go up- they will sell in a flash to recover what they can salvage. Based on that scene, the world is ready to bail out just as soon as their stock moves up at least 35% and they have some recovery. People are scared of layoffs almost as much as their vaporizing portfolios. So far it is mostly the other guy that is out of a job and most people think they can keep employed. What happens when the tide turns further down and we start eliminating middle management in many companies? This is the way companies survive. They feed on eliminating costs and payrolls. That reduction will have a chilling effect on the market and the public. So I think the year on year stock performance comparison is important, but I also think the pe rations, public expectations, and their fear of an uncertain future will keep this whole market depressed for a longer time than we now think. It could take at least 30 months to turn around.

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (143131)	9/8/2001 2:13:50 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

LOL...I hear that all the time...up 'til now it's been wishful thinking... The snowball is just starting to head down hill, I'm afraid. ).: 1929 Jim? I hope you're as right here as you were on your predictions that Y2K would do us in. I said that remedial processes had been taking place for years that would prevent the Y2K computer crisis, which turned out to be what happened. Tony