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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (34121)	9/8/2001 12:20:26 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69358

McClellan Oscillator at -143 and percentage of stocks 1 standard deviation below their 200 SMA now at 32.43 right at the April high. Odds now favor a bounce to the long side. From a practical perspective the Fed now has a serious problem. Additional rate decrease would indicate the enconomy is falling into a recession. No interest rate cuts on the other hand would keep the dollar strong and hurt exports and foreign currency translations which would hurt EPS numbers. At this point everyone is doing a wait and see approach for the late year re-bound. This has been a strange slow down to say the least. We never got the inflation in commodities except the artificially created one on oil and gas that would have traditionally signalled an end to the cycle. On the other had, the slow down pretty well much did correspond to a 7 year cycle. It was extended due to the year 2000 spending, but the cycle did go as planned. At this point there is a interesting dilemma playing out. The bulk of baby boomer were suppose to start retiring in 2007. Given the melt down of the market, some will have to postpone their retirement, but at the same time I don't expect these people to return to the market given the beating a lot of them took. So what is the catalyst for the market to rally in any significant way. We have had people hold stock in record numbers, but you now have a generation that was severly burned by holding stocks. I think the scenario of people not come back to stock in a singnificant way for a generation may play out. We saw it in the 60's, It looks like it played out the same in the 90's. Scary though that the market will not rise significantly till 2030.