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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51755)	9/8/2001 5:42:53 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 70976

<That market has given up 4 full years of gains> Feels like 8.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51755)	9/8/2001 6:37:58 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, very interesting observations, it surely pit in question the long held believed that LTB&H is the only real working way to succeed in the market. By the way, you thesis about the strong getting stronger is not that flawed, but you should not compare the 97 highs to just a price here at random, but the the subsequent highs (either the next cycle top or the last), or at least to the current cycle's lows, IMHO. As for the market, I believe that we will set a low (could still be only a "tmporary low, depending on how we fare next week) the end of next week, or the latest by the following Monday (9/17). Not being able to "nail down" the absolute bottom, I have started to deploy cash Friday, and reduced it on the close to 48%, and plan to continue deployment as next week evolves. I have taken a position (already in the red <g>) in NEWP around $16 which is not much above book value and plan to reestablish positions in the likes of NVLS, KLAC, CYMI and DPMI and continue and play "cat and mouse" with CCMP, that last one looks like one of the strongest in the group. Zeev

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (51755)	9/8/2001 11:19:39 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, >1. in tech industries (other than very new markets), the bigger company usually continues to gain market share, while #2, #3, and so on gradually fall further behind (in their businesses, and in their stocks). AMAT is the emerging Gorilla in semi-equip. I would have expected AMAT to at least track with NVLS, not do substantially worse. < Isn't this result of the rule of large numbers. I understand that AMAT is larger than NVLS, KLAC, KLIC combined. Therefore, the natural movement would be for the stock to move up in a greater amount than AMAT. The downside is the factor that when one moves out of the stock there will be a greater drop. Just my opinion. Paul