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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gersh Avery who wrote (18147)9/8/2001 5:10:53 PM
From: stomper  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52237
 
Was 938 the number on the lower tine? TIA.

-dave



To: Gersh Avery who wrote (18147)9/8/2001 9:02:17 PM
From: Trading Machine  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 52237
 
Gulp, OEX 543 is where I have the next line, but we been through so many of them I'm counting on my oversold and stochastics stuff.

Thursday I closed with a buy across the board. I can't get as specific as Don does but my indicators say that the market should head up within two days. The bad part of this is that we could go down a thousand points during those two days.

So what I wind up counting on is that if I go in and it continues to drop, it will come back up and let me out on the bounce. No harm, no foul. BUT, and it's a big but, you've got to recognize resistance on the way back up and take the opportunity when it presents itself.

I hate to say this but from all my indications we are real close to a bottom if we are not there already. What I expect to happen is a fairly dramatic turn around and a run back up to OEX 602, which is the 38% retracement value from here. Now that number could change Monday if we sell off some more, but if you remember 598/602 was tremendous support on the way down and it acted the same way back in April/May.

Going on the information from Don's study, this leg down has exceeded 7%, and therefore we can expect to revisit this area (setting a second local bottom when the drop is more than 7%) and perhaps a little lower before recovering all the way.

I don't know what the catalyst is going to be, but I never do and it always surprises me!

So I am keeping my fingers and toes crossed because I am 100% long and have Berney and RugRat keeping me company. I am already $2 down on Magellan, but I figure I could be doing a lot worse. (maybe?) ggggg Magellan is down 18% YTD and I'm up 8% at the close Friday - However, Monday could change all that around. ggggg But what do I know?

I know the water's getting deeper in the bilges and I now believe that a market crash is possible. I don't think it is likely but with the strangness of all the things going on on the way down here..... Two years ago when we were trading in the 450-550 area I thought we could crash then also, but things miraculously turned around. Then I didn't know any better! gggg

Good Luck next week,

Paul K.



To: Gersh Avery who wrote (18147)9/8/2001 9:20:15 PM
From: Trading Machine  Respond to of 52237
 
Gersh I forgot to mention that I have a pretty damn good line on S&P that Berney found on a linear weekly chart. That line will be 1078 next week.

By my calculations that corresponds to 550.4 on OEX if they don't move the indexes around. gggg

Cu

PK