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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill McCabe who wrote (8445)	9/9/2001 2:16:31 AM
From: Tommy D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24921

I agree with your comments Bill and your thoughts as to value. If the UN sanctions mean a US company can purchase without risk of attack from the US gov't then TLM could go because they have a great portfolio. If not, I can't see a US company purchasing TLM and then trying to sell 10% of its asset base with a gun to its head (ie. in order to be onside with US Gov't). Too much risk. Regards TommyD

To: Bill McCabe who wrote (8445)	9/9/2001 3:23:22 AM
From: Richard Saunders	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24921

Bill - TLM & your thoughts. I too agree with the undervalued thought but do wonder if it's realistic to compare the situation to Devon's stunt with Anderson. As you know, Talisman is much more oil focused -- something like 70% of production is oil. As you note, international plays a significant part of the oil side. I think something like 2/3 of total oil comes from outside of Canada. Sudan is currently producing somewhere around 55,000 bpd which I think accounts for close to 1/4 of TLM's oil production. Oil is also happening internationally in places like Algeria, about 1/3 out of the North Sea, Indonesia, Columbia, Malaysia/Viet Nam. Exploration followup to a duster in Trinidad is also ongoing. Again, you're right about the international package being attractive provided Sudan becomes politically palatable. You've followed the Sudan situation for a long while and know too that it has caused lots of indigestion to date...... Will the situation suddenly become rosy and wonderful? That's the wildcard and I think TLM's price is indicating that many are betting that it will take more than a signature on a piece of paper to change that situation. I'd argue that the Devon offer for AXL Anderson is quite a bit different than a possible TLM disappearance. Anderson is producing about 80% as much gas as TLM and about 28% as much oil. What Anderson did have was lots of Canadian real estate....... millions of net acres of land. About 2mil. acres in the far north and another 5.65mil. net acres further south. Time will tell whether the offer that Devon paid was absolute gonzo or a strategically far-sighted and astute move. At the moment the cdn$7.25bil. admission price paid to the Great White North appears huge. Gas futures can quickly change so who knows........ Can you apply similar valuations, especially the premium, to TLM? The international political uncertainties add some risk. The larger portfolio eliminates some potential purchasers. The weighting to oil also adds a wildcard in some ways re: futures pricing and reliance upon OPEC to dictate market "value". Agreed, TLM appears undervalued in many ways however it will take increased oil prices (imo) to attract any equivalent type of deal that Devon just fired at Anderson. Interesting times for sure.