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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7591)	9/9/2001 12:19:43 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 23153

Remember the "rolling recession" in the 1980s that hit one industrial sector after another ? We may be having something like that - Semis and some tech bottoming, but much of the rest of the economy now starting to slide down.... The effects of the interest rate cuts won't kick in until next spring or summer. That was a good point about unemployment offices being understaffed, and TV crews filming long lines. Unless some interesting happens (Elian Gonzales, Gary Condit videos with Pamela Anderson, Shark attack in the Hudson) the media will stage a 3 - 4 week fear festival about unemployment and the economy. Combine that with earnings warnings, and we could push the market down another 10-15% easy. Beating the Drum Beats of Fear while waiting for 1987, energyplay

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (7591)	9/9/2001 1:07:36 AM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

JQP, why I am not bullish: geocities.com Rate cuts are having no effect to this point. Although short term rates such as those on CP have fallen dramatically in the past year, demand for borrowing is still dropping. Even on a percentage basis, the drop from the peak is the greatest on record (data begin in 1979). When I see corporate borrowing turn around, and stock buybacks being announced, then I will feel differently. Note how little short-term borrowing dropped during previous recessions, compared with the current plunge. How can this chart be reconciled with a bullish stance? I'd like to be buying ahead of the crowd, and I would like to be persuaded that I am missing something if that is the case. Also, it seems that releases of well-known economic statistics are just noise, and are already priced into the market despite appearances... to gain an edge, IMO one must monitor non-traditional indicators such as shipping rates, prices of cardboard, blank/used billboard ratios, residual values of leased vehicles, etc.