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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: QwikSand who wrote (45123)	9/9/2001 5:35:56 AM
From: uu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

Dear QwickSand: When someone says: "Yes, the twister had it right all along. is similar to saying that someone who stayed away from California all his life in fear of the big earthquake was right all along when (and of course if) that big earthquake happens. In hindsight everyone is right at one point or another. I can guarantee you that I will be right "all along" in due time when (and NOT IF) things do turn around. And I will be wrong "all along" when things do turn down again at some point or another. The world is moving forward for the best. Prosperity is not a straight line, but rather an evolving process: 2 steps forward and one step backward. In this continued 2-step-forward-1-step-backward evolving process, to say someone was right all along during the one-step-backward process for singing the gloom and doom song during the 2-step-going-forward part of the process is rather foolish. And there is so much talk about valuations these days and how things were/are overvalued!! What is meant by valuations anyway? It is simply a value that people are willing to pay for something at some point based on their mood, emotions and perceptios of their well being and the world in general. For you to say that someone was right in March of 2000 when he claimed valuations were too rich is rather naive. In due time (and I do not know exactly when - but I would say 12-18 months down the road), someone (like you) would come out and say, Mr. X was right back in 2001 all along when he said that the valuations were too low! Everything is relative at certain points in time based purely on human emotions, perceptions and understanding of the world. It would be rather naive to say that those who did not sell at the peak should learn their lessons about valuations! That is not the lesson to be learned. The leasson to be learned is to make sure to take advantage of the greed rather than being taken advantaged by the greed! And to take advantage of the fear rather then being taken advataged by it. I repeat, markets are based on a set of logical factors (P/Es, P/S, valuations, etc.), and also a set of illogical factors (i.e. basic human emotions such as greed, and fear, perceptions and understanding of the what to come). It is those illogical factors that define the logical ones. If you really believe we will never see Nasdaq reaching 5000 or much higher sometime during the next 10-15 years, then I am afraid it is you who have not learned your lessons of investing. In 1899, (and I do not recall the name of the person), but the Director of US Patent office declared that everything that man ever needed and ever wanted had already been invented and there would be no more inventions ever because there were so many of them already! I submit to you, what you saw during the past few years as far as technology capital spendings are concerned were a tiny fraction of what we will see in few years from now. The most illogical act (as an investor who believes in capitalism) during this downtrend would be to stay away from buying the equities of those companies that will define the prosperity of the future (namely the JDSUs, CSCOs, INTCs, MSFTs, LSIs, VTSSs, etc.)... The very same equities that are viewed so negatively and are mocked as being still way too overvalued. Mark my words, a few years from now (perhaps less than 4 years) you would look back and ask yourself, why I did not buy when these stocks were selling at such low valuations. And in 15 years you look back and wonder what it was that you were thinking at the time when you did not buy these equities. But perhaps it is not the question of "why not buying" that is important, but rather the feeling. Those who would be asking the question of why they did not buy when they had the chance would feel the same way as those who ask themselves today why they did not sell when they had the chance in March of 2000! In the overall scheme of markets, no one is right and no one is wrong and Everyone is right and everyone is wrong! So go ahead and try to sound logical and mock those who are losing money today by buying/accumulating and/or holding on to the tech equities that are being mocked for still being too overvalued, and call them naives and stupids. The fact is the very act of trying to logically explain market's behavior itself is the most illogical act of them all for which you are trying to make sense of basic human being emotions, and perceptions. Anyway, I think I have said enough and I am just going to give up trying to express what I think of what is happening today. I just come back early next year and see how all those who are gloating over having (what they refer to as a bear market) feel and think! So for now lets call the Dipys and Twisters of the world as market gurus who were right all along, and people like me as idiots who were wrong all along! Lets see if this statement can be re-phrased differently (i.e. switched) sometime in the near future!