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Strategies & Market Trends : Making Money is Main Objective -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (1638)	9/9/2001 9:13:00 AM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 2155

Qwest's accounting method divergent Revenue booking for fiber-optic capacity sales questioned denverpost.com

To: Softechie who wrote (1638)	9/12/2001 11:02:21 PM
From: James1000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2155

I think the United States is headed for a full-blown recession for many reasons: - Americans must now save real money instead of letting their stock market gains count as "saving". This means overall spending must go down 5 to 10%. - Real estate prices will crash. Commercial real-estate prices are already crashing. I plan to short sell Mrs. Fannie and an array of REIT stocks when the chance arrives. This time around I won't be shy and will buy puts. Had I used puts when Micron was at $44 my retirement would be set. Hopefully the stock won't change much on the WTC news because I am hoping its bloated price will last until I am done short-selling computer stocks. - At this point the money supply is low. During the 1990's according to the adjusted money supply figure that I use, there should have been deflation. In fact, many commodity prices went down. However at this point, the adjusted money supply is SOARING. This means there will be very high inflation starting next year. At the rate the printing presses are going now, it will be the second quarter of next year, which the inflation will start. I should point out that commodity prices have been going up ever since the fed started printing money at about 7,305mph. - Credit card debt loads are high and cannot get much higher without massive bankruptcies. This is already an increase in bankruptcies. - Because of the attack on the WTC, Americans such as myself no longer view America as immune to domestic violence. The last domestic violence excluding Pearl Harbor, took place I don't even know when. Possibly as far back as the Civil War. This means that the consumer confidence indicator will likely head to the lowest it has ever been by the end of the year. - Because of the trade center massacre, Foreigners will not be so eager to put so much investment in the United States. Investment by other countries in the United States is huge. People all have the computers they need. I certainly don't plan to buy one anytime soon. Everyone I know who wants one has one. Computers will go the way of the TV, a low-margin product produced in extremely high quantities by factory workers in Taiwan. Because of this the computer industry will be a follower, not a leader. Broadband doesn't have even a fat chance of making a difference. I take that back, they will be a huge drag on the banking sector. They have INSANE debt loads. In other words, the dot-com spending boom was just as big, but this one is all concentrated in fewer than ten near-bankrupt companies. After a very short life, @Home is going under. I am personally short CVC and CHTR. I was short RCNC until it reached my target price of $3.00. The next boom will not come from computers or lines that move data. It will come from nanotechnology and genetic drugs. I may be dead wrong but it seems that the mass production of 30mph+ vehicles built just as much efficiency as computers did in the 90's. In the future, nanotechnology will bring much more efficiency than regular old PC's and data lines could hope to bring. I expect the boom to start around the year 2009. The trade center massacre just proves that their is no fairy land, nor will their ever be a fairly land world to live in. Not in 10,000 years. As long as people hate other people; people will kill other people. I would be very surprised if the stock market reaches a new high by the year 2020. Based on your message it will probably take to the year 2007 till people such as yourself realize that there is no reason why the finances of America can't look like the finances of Japan. Little fairies never waved a magic wand over the United States to ensure it perfect financial health. Perhaps God has blessed us but now that so many of us don't even believe in god I don't see why he would bless us in the future. 80%+ of my investment decisions are exactly right, so I urge you to consider a very diversified portfolio, with zero positions in silicon-based companies, and zero positions in broadband companies.