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To: Poet who wrote (12624)	9/9/2001 7:44:42 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I continue to be amazed at how much folks are underestimating the depth and duration of a potential bear. Even experienced investors are talking about how the lows will likely be put in soon. This is seriously foolish talk. Let me say first that I have not written-off the fact that we might reinflate this mess and that we could see new highs in non-tech in the next year or two. (This goes back to my post about the lengthy range in the DOW and many other indices, something comparable to the range of the 1966-1980 bear. The point is, it's difficult to find an instance in the price record where a crash happened out of a lengthy range, therefore, reinflation remains a possibility. This also makes sense for Elliott if you think about it.) However, if we see the DOW give up 9,000 this year, then I think we are indeed in a correction of very high degree that will take the DOW to something underneath 4,000 and the NASDAQ to something under 750. People just refuse to study history to see how badly these things play out and how long it takes. A correction of such a high degree would imply that we would not see the lows for 2-5 years yet and would not see the highs again for 20 or 30 years. To tell me this is not possible is to tell me that history is a crock that only clouds the road going forward. I have a long reading list for folks who think that -- it starts with Homer and ends with Hunter S. Thompson. Anyway, I get all fired up like this when I read this sort of thing: bearforum.com Unbelievable. Staying sold in the wide timeframes, Allan