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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (15051)	9/9/2001 10:49:20 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

Hi Susie, yes the VIX number as well as some of the TRIN readings are very convincing. First I need to say something about the "April Low". The April low was caused by people being forced to sell because they needed money to pay their tax bills. Big money vultures knew this and shorted the crap out of the drop. People didn't want to sell and still had confidence that the stock market was still the place to be. There was plenty of "sideline money" ready to jump in and take advantage of this oversold opportunity. Since mid August, the market has changed. What took so stinking long I have no clue. But this time around, people are selling because they are sick of the market, because they are finally (and correctly) convinced that its gonna be a while before the risk/reward of stocks is better than the risk/reward of cash. The selling is on a scale similar to the insane buying that happened from Jan 2000 - March 2000. Its funny that on the last leg up, no one mentioned the technical alarm bell indicators that kept saying "WE'RE AT THE TOP !!". But everybody's pointing to everything that suggests we're at the bottom. To me the VIX isn't saying that we're oversold (even though the markets are) -- this time around the VIX is saying ... . . . ............. welcome to "Step 5 !" lol Chris

To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (15051)	9/9/2001 10:57:59 AM
From: ChrisJP	Respond to of 208838

By the way, I'm not ruling out some nice bouncing as the debate over how bad the economy will get and how long it will last. I also don't think you'll see the same degree of sell off in late Oct due to Mutual Fund end-of-fiscal year accounting. I mean, like, do the really have any profits to take this year ? lol And December -- who needs to take capital losses this year to offset gains ? What gains ? So most selling that occurs will be due to insiders getting out and redeptions. Only reason to buy that I can think of will be in early jan if you've been short for a while don't want to pay taxes on your capital gain until 2003. Chris

To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (15051)	9/9/2001 11:06:46 AM
From: JeanD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

I'm wondering how the market can rally ahead of warnings season. In April earnings season kicked off around April 11. I'd feel a lot better about a bounce if we didn't have a month of warnings ahead of us. YHOO kicks off earnings season on Oct. 10 or 11 I think (going from memory). No one wants a rally more than me, cause my trading account is in an IRA and I can't short. There is a mutual fund that is a short fund and I wish I had taken advantage of using that as a trading vehicle. Wondering though if anyone else has the same concerns as I do about this being an odd time for a bounce here.

To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (15051)	9/9/2001 11:14:06 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

Susie, actually, the January 3rd bottom had the VIX not higher than Friday's high. I think it is more important to see a reversal in the direction of the VIX for an actual bottom than the actual value of the VIX. Zeev