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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (34143)	9/9/2001 11:42:06 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69358

VIX Analysis Targets By Magician 9/9/2001 The VIX has closed in the 34's five times in 2001, excluding Friday's close at 34.36. The dates were January 2nd, March 14th, March 23rd, April 2nd and April 5th. An analysis of the Nasdaq's performance on the trading day following a VIX close in the 34's yields some interesting results. The data from January 2nd is not used in this analysis and is treated as an outlying data point because the action was caused by the first FOMC rate cut and skews the analysis. Using the four other closes in the 34's in 2001 we get an average LOSS on the next trading day for the Nasdaq of 51 points or 3%. The QQQ's lose on average $1.67 or 4.2%. Thus, targets closes for Monday are 1,634 to 1,638 for the Nasdaq and $32.03 to $32.27 for the QQQ. NASDAQ QQQ Point Change 2-Jan-01 to 3-Jan-01 324.83 $9.00 % Change 2-Jan-01 to 3-Jan-01 14.2% 16.8% Point Change 14-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 -31.3 $(1.60) % Change 14-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 -1.6% -3.7% Point Change 2-Apr-01 to 3-Apr-01 -109.97 $(2.74) % Change 2-Apr-01 to 3-Apr-01 -6.2% -7.3% Point Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -64.64 $(1.36) % Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -3.6 -3.6% Avg Point Change 21.7 $0.46 0.45% -0.02% Average Point Change EXCLUDING Jan 3 -54.045 $(1.67) Average % Change EXCLUDING Jan 3 -3.0% -4.2% MONDAY PREDICTION: NASDAQ QQQ Using Point Avg 1,633.66 $32.03 Using % Avg 1,637.45 $32.27 The table below calculates the target low on the Nasdaq and QQQ based on a VIX close in the 34 area. January 2nd is excluded from the calculations. This table calculates the lowest point the Nasdaq and QQQ hits before bouncing for more than one day. The average loss for the Nasdaq after a 34 reading in the VIX is 160 points or 8.5%. The average loss on the QQQ is $4.22 or 10.2%. Based on this data our target bounce zones for the Nasdaq and QQQ are 1,528 to 1,545 for the Nasdaq and $29.49 to $30.26 for the QQQ. NASDAQ QQQ Point Change 14-Mar-01 to 21-Mar-01 (141.86) (3.40) % Change 14-Mar-01 to 21-Mar-01 -7.2% -7.8% Point Change 23-Mar-01 to 4-Apr-01 (289.88) (8.75) % Change 23-Mar-01 to 4-Apr-01 -15.0% -20.4% Point Change 2-Apr-01 to 4-Apr-01 (144.17) (3.35) % Change 2-Apr-01 to 4-Apr-01 -8.1% -9.0% Point Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 (64.64) (1.36) % Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -3.6% -3.6% Avg Point Change (160.14) (4.22) Avg % Change -8.5% -10.2% PREDICTION: NASDAQ QQQ Using Point Avg 1,527.56 $29.49 Using % Avg 1,544.54 $30.26 VIX Analysis Targets By Magician 9/9/2001 The VIX has closed in the 34's five times in 2001, excluding Friday's close at 34.36. The dates were January 2nd, March 14th, March 23rd, April 2nd and April 5th. An analysis of the Nasdaq's performance on the trading day following a VIX close in the 34's yields some interesting results. The data from January 2nd is not used in this analysis and is treated as an outlying data point because the action was caused by the first FOMC rate cut and skews the analysis. Using the four other closes in the 34's in 2001 we get an average LOSS on the next trading day for the Nasdaq of 51 points or 3%. The QQQ's lose on average $1.67 or 4.2%. Thus, targets closes for Monday are 1,634 to 1,638 for the Nasdaq and $32.03 to $32.27 for the QQQ. NASDAQ QQQ Point Change 2-Jan-01 to 3-Jan-01 324.83 $9.00 % Change 2-Jan-01 to 3-Jan-01 14.2% 16.8% Point Change 14-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 -31.3 $(1.60) % Change 14-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 -1.6% -3.7% Point Change 2-Apr-01 to 3-Apr-01 -109.97 $(2.74) % Change 2-Apr-01 to 3-Apr-01 -6.2% -7.3% Point Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -64.64 $(1.36) % Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -3.6 -3.6% Avg Point Change 21.7 $0.46 0.45% -0.02% Average Point Change EXCLUDING Jan 3 -54.045 $(1.67) Average % Change EXCLUDING Jan 3 -3.0% -4.2% MONDAY PREDICTION: NASDAQ QQQ Using Point Avg 1,633.66 $32.03 Using % Avg 1,637.45 $32.27 The table below calculates the target low on the Nasdaq and QQQ based on a VIX close in the 34 area. January 2nd is excluded from the calculations. This table calculates the lowest point the Nasdaq and QQQ hits before bouncing for more than one day. The average loss for the Nasdaq after a 34 reading in the VIX is 160 points or 8.5%. The average loss on the QQQ is $4.22 or 10.2%. Based on this data our target bounce zones for the Nasdaq and QQQ are 1,528 to 1,545 for the Nasdaq and $29.49 to $30.26 for the QQQ. NASDAQ QQQ Point Change 14-Mar-01 to 21-Mar-01 (141.86) (3.40) % Change 14-Mar-01 to 21-Mar-01 -7.2% -7.8% Point Change 23-Mar-01 to 4-Apr-01 (289.88) (8.75) % Change 23-Mar-01 to 4-Apr-01 -15.0% -20.4% Point Change 2-Apr-01 to 4-Apr-01 (144.17) (3.35) % Change 2-Apr-01 to 4-Apr-01 -8.1% -9.0% Point Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 (64.64) (1.36) % Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -3.6% -3.6% Avg Point Change (160.14) (4.22) Avg % Change -8.5% -10.2% PREDICTION: NASDAQ QQQ Using Point Avg 1,527.56 $29.49 Using % Avg 1,544.54 $30.26