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To: RockyBalboa who wrote (13560)	9/10/2001 9:20:53 AM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19633

Chr., another school of thoughts on consumer spending and unemployment: 09:08 ET Merrill Econ Comments : According to Merrill Lynch, the premise that the consumer must collapse if the unemployment rate rises is not supported by economic history. Notes that during most surges in layoffs, lower interest rates stimulated increased borrowing and spending by those who remained employed. Given that retail sales seem to lag surges in mortgage refinancing by roughly six months, thinks that strong refi activity in the 1H suggest a sustained recovery in retail sales through the first half of 2002. Regards, Tom