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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mark calgary who wrote (1396)	9/10/2001 10:35:01 AM
From: mark calgary	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11633

Further to my post - latest out from nce - they are really covering their ass as far as future distributions goes. Expect to see more of this over the next month from just about all the O&G Trusts The stock is down 5.7 % (.85) so far today. Mark NCE Petrofund (2) NCF Shares issued 0 Sep 7 2001 close $14.950 Monday Sep 10 2001 News Release An anonymous director reports September distribution NCE Petrofund has declared that the September distribution for the trust is 25 Canadian cents per trust unit. In conjunction with the offering declared earlier today, the company has reviewed its near-term expenditure requirements, as well as its available credit, and has determined to distribute during the fourth quarter of 2001 all of its cash flow from operating activities. This policy will be reviewed periodically. NCE Petrofund believes that it can sustain monthly distributions at approximately 25 Canadian cents per unit during this fourth quarter based on the following assumptions: (i) average prices of $27 (U.S.) per barrel for oil (West Texas intermediate) and $3 (Canadian) per thousand cubic feet for Canadian gas, (ii) no interruption or significant change from production levels or operating conditions, and (iii) no issuance of additional trust units other than in the offering announced today. Under these assumptions, monthly distributions during the fourth quarter period will include an average of approximately five Canadian cents per unit of previously accrued cash flow not yet distributed, which would fully exhaust these accruals by the end of the fourth quarter. If NCE Petrofund does not distribute these previously accrued amounts, under these same assumptions the company would only be able to sustain monthly distributions from current cash flow from operations at an average of 20 Canadian cents per unit during this period. There can be no assurance that distributions at the September level will be achieved during the fourth quarter. The price for NCE Petrofund on the Toronto Stock Exchange at the close of the market on Sept. 7, 2001, was $14.95 (Canadian) per unit. The price for NCE Petrofund on the American Stock Exchange on Sept. 7, 2001, was $9.47 (U.S.) per unit. U.S. equivalent Based on an exchange rate of $1.50 (Canadian) per $1 (U.S.), the September distribution would be 16.66 U.S. cents per unit. The exact exchange rate is calculated on the date of record (Sept. 17, 2001). Payable date The distribution is payable on Sept. 30, 2001, to holders of record on Sept. 17, 2001. The September distribution amount reflects a 1-for-3 trust unit consolidation, which became effective for trading at the opening of trading on July 6, 2001. WARNING: The company relies upon litigation protection for "forward-looking" statements. (c) Copyright 2001 Canjex Publishing Ltd. canada-stockwatch.com

To: mark calgary who wrote (1396)	9/10/2001 12:46:07 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11633

Regardless of pricing the big point that everyone has missed is that given todays prices you have had many top oilmen in the region pull the pin. JC is no one's dummy, and Gulf letting go at this point should be a strong signal to all. The commodity price structure is not going to get better in the short run. --------------- Yes in the "short" . . The price of the commodity in a day or in a week or even in a month is important to the traders trying to make a short term return ( maybe they'll guess right and make money maybe they'll guess wrong and lose. ) or to myself and others to be able to pick up the trusts at prices that are historical low and lower. Longer term when prices recover as they most certainly will, you end up with a very nice unit appreciation and then higher income. In regards to that posting where the article told of the person who recieved $10000 in income from ERF.UN for the month of August. What is the concern if the price of the units falls HE IS NOT SELLING. For the month of September his payout may fall it may fall for the month of October. Say it falls to $8000 or then to $6000. Big deal. If he uses that income to buy more units that helps to push up the payments for the next month. Then when the prices recover again as they will. History shows that. What is the end result longer term? He has a lot more units in the trust, the units have begun to go in the other higher direction, and the payouts again start to increase. Such a simple concept and yet so difficult to understand. ------------ The Americans are buying from perceived need for tying up supply for the future. The Canadians are selling because of perceived price instability. Being slightly biased I think the Canadians are right. The recent prices for natural gas are much lower than they have been, and if you understand the storage situation, there is only a couple more weeks of storage left before you begin to see well shut-ins. This will impact the price further as companies scramble to protect cash-flow. THIS IS A SHORT TERM SITUATION THAT WILL SORT ITSELF OUT IN THE NEXT 6-9 months. ------------- What you describe here is a simple cycle that has played itself out over and over again. It is nothing new. Wells will begin to shutin only if the producers can't sell it for a gain. They will hardly sell at a loss just to make a sale. What then does this ultimately do to the supply and the price. The supply begins to shrink the demand begins to pick up and prices RISE. You are correct the short term will sort itself out and when it does prices will be moving higher. All the while the trusts will make payouts not extraordinarily high payouts as was evident with the extraordinarily high commodity price. But payouts that compare quite well to letting your money sit in a savings account. That fact is quite evident now. It will be evident in the short to near term. Though it will fall somewhat. And longer term it will all just be gravy Add to that the instability in the Middle East that seems to get worse every day, and you realize that oil prices are only where they are because of OPEC. ----------- And OPEC has shown it is very good at maintaining prices just as it has. Where is the forecast collapse in oil prices that the experts has told us of.? Will prices for oil fall, yes most certainly, sometime, history tells us that? Will it mean the end of oil? It didn't before. And it won't when it happens again. Bottom line the trusts will sell the commodities and make money doing it. No matter what. Longer term. And that is all that matters.-------- I have been into the trusts for the last couple of years and we have all had a great ride on the them. It would be foolish not to take at least all profits off the table given the supply and pricing situation at this time. ------------ I have been in the trusts for nearly two decades. I have accumulated them on weakness. Sat and enjoyed the higher prices when they came along and collected the income. I will continue that cycle because it works very well. I get several thousands of $'s each month in income from these. I will continue to get several thousands of $'s each month in income regardless of a fall in unit prices or a fall in payouts. Thats not going to change. If I get more than $10000 a month from these in a month. What concern is it if next month I get only $9000 or if the next month I get $8000. Or if by buy additional units. Or taking advantage of special situations like the rights and warrants. Or if I take advantage of short term spikes in the movement in the unit price itself. So one month my income is $10000 the next its $9000 the next its $9500 the next its $8500 the next its $9000 so what. Look to how much the trusts made in the past when prices for both commodities were lower. They actually did GO FIGURE. For those following the thread that are thinking of buying in at this time I would recommend you wait at least a couple of months before purchasing any O&G trust. When the big boys are checking out now is not the time to jump in. 100% cash -------------- I covered this all before with another person. Wait a couple of months. You miss the income generated and you miss any gain in the recovery when it comes waiting for just the right time to jump back in. A FOOLS GAME. How much does cash earn sitting in savings account? How much does cash gain when you wait for signs of a rebound only to have that rebound occur without ever having taken part in it.? The answer --- NOTHING. Mark

To: mark calgary who wrote (1396)	9/10/2001 8:30:42 PM
From: trustmanic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11633

I have more apples and oranges... This is only a hypothesis....If you have $10000 cash If you put it in your saving account for 6 months, your compound return is around $25 If you put it in short term deposit. your return is around $128 If you put in money market fund....you probably get $172(before tax). Of course, you have nothing to do with the stock market, up /down is non of your business. Your money is safe. However, if you put your money in an energy trusts, I figure out this is the compound return that you may get. Using your $10000 to buy a trust @ $7.4 you will get 1351.35 shares. Let say the first month they pay 20 cents for one share, you will get a dividend of $270.27. And then you reinvest this money to buy 32.8 share@ $7.4(incl.commission).. 2nd month you will have 1384.17 shares. Again the 2nd month dividend is also 20 cents, you will get $276.83. The share price @ this point drop, it only worth $7.3, then your $276.83 can buy 33.95 shares. By the end of 2nd month you will have 1418.12 shares. The 3rd month the dividend reduced to 18 cent sand the share price is $7.25 you will get $255.26 or 31.2 shars. By the end of the 3rd month , you havea total of 1449 shares. The share price drop again to $7.2@ the 4th month, your dividend is $260.88 or 32.2 shares. The end of 4th month you have 1481 shares. The 5th month the company reduced the dividend to 16 cents and the share price drop again to $7.15, you still get $237 or 29.1 shares. Total shares @ this point is 1510 shares. The 6th month may be it only worth $7.1 you will get $241 or 29.9 share. The total shares is 1540. Now...if you have 1540 shares @ $7.1 = $10934. This is way better than you put your money in the bank and do nothing. Of course there is a risk of the share price is 20% lower, then you loss. You also have a chance to see the share price go back to $7.4 then your 1540 shares = $11396(before tax). I will go for the energy trust..