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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dealer who wrote (41124)	9/10/2001 10:14:12 AM
From: Murrey Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

dealie...looks like we're playing Jekyl and Hyde this morning, huh?

To: Dealer who wrote (41124)	9/10/2001 10:14:48 AM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

CRASH BY OCTOBER 5? by Arch Crawford CRASH BY OCTOBER 5? MARS/URANUS CRASH CYCLE CULMINATES! There is something really wrong with our markets! The BUBBLE Bursts, and the Bubble Mentality begins to slip away. The HYPE and Craziness, wild claims, bogus accounting practices to justify the insanity, all are fading like vampires in the light of a new day. Those who have some money left are beginning to consider VALUE, YIELD and SAFETY of PRINCIPAL. Imagine THAT! How Quaint! That is the exact description of the Second Leg of a BEAR MARKET from the ancient revered (at least used to be) texts of our craft. Another important consideration from our collective wisdom: In a Bear Market, technical conditions become Oversold, and stay oversold for considerable periods. In other words, as market psychology shifts, technical indicator parameters do as well. [major excisions due to problems with Acrobat--The Ed.] August is the “seasonal” low for GOLD! As Europe takes off on vacation, and that includes jewelers, normal Buying pressures are reduced. Other factors can and do interfere/override, but more buyers will return to this market starting this week. We have been commenting upon the Long Term Positive case since the Jupiter-Neptune trines in April, and these will contribute to gains for the next TWELVE YEARS! We believe the May spike to 295 will be matched or surpassed in September! Increased international tensions expected as Mars crosses into Capricorn and hits recent Eclipse points this coming weekend (Sept. 7-8) and October 2. The Fall Equinox also highlights the potential for War frenzy, meetings of heads of state and the lack of Raw Materials! Reg Howe’s next court hearing against the BIS and American FED and Treasury officials comes on October 9 (see www.LeMetropoleCafe.com). The CRB Index is holding so far near the technical support at 200. Should stem the decline, at least temporarily. Below that could precipitate a downside acceleration. The FED continues to prime the money pump. Soybeans, Wheat and Corn broke UP from long bases. All have since been in triangular corrective phases, which could break either way. We think UP! The OIL COMPLEX has been extremely choppy with CRUDE in a tight range, Heating Oil up, and Natural Gas making new lows. We are stopped out of our Short (73) on Heating Oil at stop 76.50. If the War we’re expecting hits the Middle East, all these will rise sharply, as well as COPPER! The LONG BOND has continued in a very steady uptrend, surpassing each chart resistance after minimal backing and filling. Back above 105, it is within striking distance of the year high at 107. Last month we said: “Above the recent high at 104:05 and it’s up and away again.” In tense times, such as now, BONDS move contrary to stocks, primarily for safety’s sake as a “Flight to Quality.” The U.S. Dollar Index has stabilized over the last 3 weeks in the 113-114 area, down from a long term High above 121 on the July 5 Lunar Eclipse! A war would most likely strengthen the US$ on the NEWS, but we think much lower as the EURO comes into wide personal use in early 2002. [reserved for subscribers] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- About Arch Crawford About Arch Crawford & Crawford Perspectives You have heard about his fantastic record. You've seen him on CNBC, Adam Smith's Money World, Nightly Business Report, Sightings, Wall St Journal Report, Good Morning America and Geraldo. He is interviewed weekly on WCIU – TV (#26) in Chicago (Mondays @ 12:20 CDT) and WJLA – TV (#57) in Los Angeles which is now available worldwide in real time (7:30AM PDT, 10:30 EDT) at www.businessnews2000.com! Arch Crawford, editor and publisher of Crawford Perspectives for over 20 years, cut his Technical Analysis teeth as first assistant to Top Wall St technician, Robert Farrell at Merrill Lynch (1961-64) and was said by Kiplinger's Personal Finance to be the "… only one market-timing newsletter among several dozen timers tracked by Hulbert Financial Digest (that) has outpaced the simple strategy of buying and holding…the S&P500… over the past five years." "The Street's best known Astrologer" (according to BARRON'S) has made some astounding market calls, including "The best Bull Market in 15 years" (WSJ-1981) and the Exact Top and Crash in 1987, using a combination of technical analysis and astronomic cycles. Enough Swiss Bankers subscribe to warrant a German language edition. posted by Bill Cotter on another thread