To: carranza2 who wrote (15055 ) 9/10/2001 1:20:24 PM From: S100 Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857 Nokia's bluster a case of sour lingonberries? Did Rival dump on Nokia? Analysts say Motorola, Ericsson sold surplus cell phones a very low cost. Peter Benesh IBD 10 Sep 2001 It was a cold day in August, even for Finland. A frigid wind blew from London, where research firm Gartner Dataquest Inc. reported last month that Finnish wireless icon Nokia Corp. had lost market share for the first time in the digital era. True, the slip was small. Nokia's share fell to 34.8% in the second quarter from 35.3% in the first, Gartner says. Still, the mighty Finns aren't used to losing ground to rivals led by Motorola Inc. and L.M. Ericsson AB. More than' that, it marked the second time this summer that negative news on Nokia sent a shiver through the market. On June 12, Nokia issued its first-ever profit warning. Its shares fell like lemmings off a Finnish cliff, down 20% the next day, Its American depositary receipts trade near 13, down from near 30 on June 11. snip snap But is Nokia's bluster a case of sour lingonberries (the Finnish equivalent of grapes)? No, says Jeffrey Schlesinger, an analyst with UBS Warburg in New York. Some observers are drawing a line between the first and second quarters and calling it a trend, "but Nokia chose not to compete," he said. "Motorola and Ericsson dumped a lot of end.of-life.cycle product." snip snap Motorola and Ericsson have been dumping surplus phones; including millions in China, Millions Of Handsets In Limbo All the handset makers had a lot of phones in stock at the start of 2001, says Ben Wood, the London-based Gartner ana1yst who produced last month's survey. "Dumping is an emotive word. Let's just say they've been clearing inventory," he said. "The industry had at least 50 million units stuck in the channel. I've heard an anecdotal l00 million. A lot has gone to landfill as well," Wood said, snip snap Eight million phones went at bargain prices in China he says. "Motorola dumped 6 million into China. Ericsson dumped close to 2 million." China was a logical place to sell off' .phones, especially for Motorola, says Todd Bernier, an analyst with' research firm Morningstar Inc. in Chicago snip snap China is Motorola's stronger market, not Europe or the U.S.,"he said. "But growth by itself is pointless unless you can do it profitably," Bernier said. "Motorola hasn't figured that out. Starbucks would sell a lot more coffee if they gave it away." Motorola sneers at the dumping charge. "Completely false," a spokesman said. Ericsson executives declined to respond. Yet Gartner’s Wood says selling off phones cheaply in China could be a smart move. "There's only 9% wireless penetration in China. By 2005-06, that could be 20% to 25%," he said. "It's a good place to get a foothold. If you have to dump stock, it's a good market to seed snip snap Wars-'Just Heating Up' "Fundamentally, Nokia is the low-cost maker. It's their business to lose," Bucher said. And the wars are just heating up, he says, Nokia's strength comes from its dominance in GSM, the cell phone standard in Europe and much of Asia, Bucher says. Almost 70% of the world's mobile phones use, the GSM standard; which stands for Global System for Mobile communications. The next wave of technology, called GPRS, is under way. GPRS will let people send and receive data at speeds roughly those of today's phone-wired modems. GPRS networks are slowly starting up. But Nokia is not yet on the market with its phones. It says it will be ready by October. Motorola is the first to market in Europe, where GPRS faces its big consumer test. Nokia needs to offer new wares, says UBS Warburg's Schlesinger. "We're at the 'point of diminishing returns in voice," he said. "I don't think Nokia can get to 40% of market share unless they introduce new products. There's already a risk that Christmas sales will be weak this year. We've seen weakness in back-to-school sales. Indeed, Nokia1s numbers could fan further, says Bemier. " snip snap Ericsson and Motorola technology may wind up in other makers' phones. Ericsson has teamed with Sony Corp. to make handsets. France's Alcatel Alsthom SA and Asia's Fujitsu Ltd. are partners in future wireless systems. . And new technologies will bring more competition, says Bucher. "Now, Nokia has the GSM advantage. But by 2003 we may be talking about some other radio standards or technologies. Whoever is the low-cost leader will be the winner."