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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (1130)	9/10/2001 1:42:04 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

What seems to be happening is a shift to Cu, 300mm and feature sizes under 0.15µ. Companies with appropriate leading edge products generally haven't been trashed to the same extent as others without that demonstrated potential. Perhaps the market is a little more efficient than your impression from Moneyline.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (1130)	9/10/2001 2:22:02 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

RtS - I'm not sure where CNN is getting its data (perhaps we don't want to know), but here is what I found: Price to Book (from Yahoo today) SFAM....0.56 MTSN....0.57 TGAL....0.91 CMOS....1.14 DPMI....1.24 ASYT....1.35 FSII....1.54 BRKS....1.56 EGLS....1.61 KLIC....1.73 UTEK....1.78 COHU....1.80 NANO....2.04 LTXX....2.08 VECO....2.13 ATMI....2.23 PRIA....2.30 PLAB....2.39 SMTL....2.64 PHTN....2.87 CYMI....2.90 TER.... 2.91 NVLS....2.97 LRCX....4.13 AMAT....4.22 HELX....4.67 ASML....4.81 KLAC....4.90 (WFR n/a) Average 2.42 This mean p/b level strongly suggests that most stocks in the group, and the sector as a whole, are approaching (or at) a bottom. Virtually all stocks have been brought down to bottom-type valuation levels. However, the bottom 1/4 of the list (the highest p/b's) is crowded with the large cap names. In my view, this has little to do with the 'leading edge' or 'demonstrated potential' of these companies (the vast majority of companies are well into developing Cu, 300mm and 0.15µ.sizing) but is solely a function of generic (and highly suspect) 'safe haven' buying by nervous investors. The final stage blowoff of this retracement may be when those stocks with reasonable valuations (p/b of ~2.5 and lower) stabilize or strengthen while the large caps (or any with a p/b over ~3.5) get trashed to more rational levels.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (1130)	9/10/2001 2:55:47 PM
From: James Calladine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95520

"None of the other industries can grow without it!" I can accept the fact that semiconductor companies and foundries are reliant on semi equipment to make their products. HOWEVER, in the present situation of very well documented UNDERUTILIZATION of foundry capacity, there is not much doubt that semi companies can grow substantially (from present levels) simply by using this present capacity. Yes, some products may require new technology in order to be made economically, but there is not much evidence to suggest a rush to retool (at least at this point). Namaste! Jim