Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Braincramp who wrote (1406)	9/10/2001 6:12:49 PM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Respond to of 11633

Ncf.un looks like an excellent short, --------------- Then if it is then short it. Give us the details and we can watch how you do. I gave exact details of buying the warrants and the rights earlier. All have and can see the results of those plays ---------------- Why would anyone at this time pay a penny over 10.30. -------------- Because historically the price is low. It is not high. You have two differnet trusts to compare. One is fairly new say a few years old. The other is older it has been around for nearly two decades. Which one has a better track record of surviving downturns? Well the newer one it really hasn't seen anything but the upside. How will it behave when things are going in the opposite direction? It has no track record to compare to. The other has been around a long time. It has been through and "survived" SEVERAL upward and downward cycles. -------------- What investors of these units don't understand is that these trusts should be looked at as a group. ---------------- Looked at as a group yes, compared to other groups Then looked at individually on the basis of how long they have been around, how they deal with a downturn. Maybe just maybe an investor knowing that NCF.UN has been around for a long time is comfortable knowing the trust has been around for a long time and will most probably be around for a longer time yet. That newer trust just how will it fair in a downturn. It hasn't experience one what will it do ,how will it do it. Thats not comfort.------------------------ If the investors that invested in ncf.un had looked around a bit and compared them to other trusts they would have sold them at 18 can. ------------- Gee looking at something with the benefit of hindsight. Taking what you see has already happened and then saying look if you did this then--- . Actually looking to the trading history one sees that the price was upwards of $30 (split adjusted) a level that clearly and historically was just too high. I avoid historical high levels using a modified linear regression model with historical prices. This model tells me the price now is historically attractive. So now I can own the trust. No hindsight here just a mathematical methodology that pinpoints times to avoid and times to get in. Or times to accumulate and times just to sit back and collect the income. It has worked before and it will work again. DO YOUR OWN NUMBER CRUNCHING. Example why keep ncf.un at over 13 when you can buy pve and ay, around 10 both pay around the same. ---------- The reasons above.