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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (55177)	9/10/2001 9:13:55 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 77400

That is precisely what I meant by "hope". Disguised as everyone else's fear. It takes hope for people to call "the bottom will soon be in". Hope is what it takes for CNBC to point to any excuse for a rally. Hope is what it takes to click on your portfolio and scan for green. Hope is what it takes to chase away the folks who have negative opinions. Or positive opinions. To be willing to venture any opinion. And thus, you and I at least, we have hope. But not fear. Hope with which we survey the landscape. All is not lost, no collapse. Rather pastoral for a place that by all rights has been cratered... hmmm... maybe an economic bottom is in and businesses will begin to recover. Good. Indeed, I suggest that the spending power will be unleashed in the 2003 budgets and that 2002 will be a kind of picking gingerly through the ashes kind of year (what CFO wants to be known as the guy who committed unnecessary capital while there was a shortage). So Cisco (the company) will start earning some more money. Maybe a few pennies per share per quarter once the smoke and mirrors are cleared away. Ok, maybe even a dime per share per quarter. What does that make it worth? What kind of PE do we give a business that is now known to be cyclic, not up up up forever, but up down up down etc. With a revenue base of maybe 20 B$ growing at what rate? 20-30%/year? Does PEG count at all? And remember that 20% growth of Cisco is as much business as Cisco was back in '96-97 timeframe. And next year they need to find another one of those beasts. And another the year after next... ohgeez. So sure, maybe business is finally coming down to earth. But earth to spaceman: "what's a fair price for a slice"? And we aren't there yet. Or should we zoom back up to bubble pricing while we are at it and call that a recovery. No, that would be too hopeful. That would be a return of irrational exuberance. First we need to see some rational exuberence. And before that we need some rational sobriety. Which comes after a bit of slowly sobering but still irrational inebriety. Which is still where we appear to be. John.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (55177)	9/10/2001 9:24:45 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 77400

Three things to consider: 1) The 4th Q and 1st Q 02 earning estimates are way too high. Investors will have to sustain round after round of cut. GDP estimate for the same period and the whole next year might still be too high. Will investors tolerate another several rounds of bad news attack? You make the call. 2) Consumer spending is likely to disappoint down the road. I was told by several sources that this Christmas season is shaping up to be a pretty boring one. From my personal investigation while vocationing in Acadia and Cape Cod, occupancies in hotels and motels show steep drop as compared to last year. And I feel that the unemployment rate has not peaked yet. We have a fat chance to reaching over 6% within the next six months and peaking from there. 3) True bear markets don't end in total capitulation. The sharp reversals we observed in the last several rounds all happened in bull market, or at least partial bull market. Everyone was expecting, or waiting to buy at the 20% correction level and knew that the market would go sharply higher within a short period of time. It's not the case this time around. I don't see fear, maybe a little bit frustration and tiredness on the investors's, or trader's side. Both the bulls and the bears are tired, waiting for a bomb to drop to push the market in either directions. I stick to my gun that it won't be over until NAZ 1200s and DOW 7500-8000. And as always, the longer it takes to get there, the longer it takes us to enter a new bull market. larry!

To: RetiredNow who wrote (55177)	9/10/2001 9:41:25 PM
From: Ed Forrest	Respond to of 77400

MM Well said. A quiet day, no excessive selling or buying, like today was what was needed for investors to perhaps regain their equilibrium. I strongly feel we are closer rather than further away from the magic "bottom". Ed

To: RetiredNow who wrote (55177)	9/10/2001 10:39:31 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Good Post....I'm thinking that we are slightly past the bottom with CSCO and the other techs. This is not to say that CSCO could not swing a full point down on any given day. But the bad news is having less and less of an effect on the market. Friday's sell off in my opinion was the result of Bush going on national TV and really having nothing to say. A few minutes prior to his speech the Nasdaq was up 17 and making a nice come back along with the DOW. By the time he finished we were near the lows for the day. Investors (individuals and institutions) realized very quickly that wherever the market was going it was going to go there without any help from the Bush administration. That being the case a sell off was in order. This is dumb politics. Bush needs some new advisors. Why make a big deal about making a National Appearance on TV, and have nothing of consequence to say. You had to notice that following his speech there was no political analysis of what he said, because he said nothing. When the President says nothing about helping the markets, thats spooky.....and we all paid the price. In his final comments he says something about solving the energy crisis.What energy crisis? This politician is fighting windmills. Best put an oil derrick in the rose garden for good measure. Well if I was an investor about to enter a market that has overcorrected, and heard that speech, I be spooked too. You might think that this is an over reaction....Look at todays Wall Street Journal....it makes no mention of Bush's speech. Regards, Jerome