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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goldberry who wrote (1417)	9/11/2001 4:40:16 AM
From: Peter W. Panchyshyn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11633

You mentioned 3 OGT's and pgf.un has been the best performer of the 3 based on stock price over the past 5 years so have used this stock for comparison with Riocan REIT Stock name Sept 97 Sept 01 Total Div % Gain(loss) div % price price Rec'd to date Riocan 7.00 11.43 4.47 64% 8.90 .09 15.4% Pengrowth 17.75 16.50 10.70 60% 9.45 .21 14.2% Nothing shabby about either performance wise but IMO Riocan is the clear winner. ----------- You made your comparison in an in appropriate way. The comparison takes into account that both are played the same way. And not the best or most efficient way. Then you look to the returns and there is the winner. I am afraid that it is not that fair of a comparison. Why? That is not the best way to play either of the funds. Using a accumulation on weakness strategy with these trusts over the long term is the best way to play these trust. Both REIT and OIL/GAS. Now using that which is the best performing? Have you even looked at it that way? NO. Then how can you say definitively which is best? I allways say look at all the information look at all the data then come to the correct conclusion. You haven't done that. Now I know it takes a little longer, but the information that that extra time spent doing the research really can and does payoff. Now collect for both trusts the following information. Weekly and yearly high low unit price ranges going back nearly two decades. And Dividend payout information for the last two decades. Both can be obtained from the Financial Post DataGroup each year going back nearly 4 decades. And weekly price ranges can be bought from any online data storage firm even the one through your online broker. Now The annual book is entitled 10 year Price and Dividend Record. Now using a modified linear regression analysis on the unit price data come up with ranges high and low for the trusts. Now your method is to never buy or accumulate when the unit price is in its yearly high range. Only buy or accumulate when in the low ranges. What do the results show? I have done the analysis. You can check its validity if you wish. In fact I encourage you to do so. Now when you compare the individual trusts your way on the one side and my way on the other side your returns are as much as 50% or more higher. So if your REIT says 12% your way my way gives a return approaching 20% or more. Same holds for the OIL/GAS, except for the oil and gas the price swings are much wider and it is these wider swings that give that added boost that surpasses the REITS. Cumulative dividends received to date are 64% of the purchase price 5 years ago slightly better than Pengrowths 60%. But look at what happens if one liquidates today the gain on Riocan is $8.90 a 127% return including dividends versus a 53% gain for Pengrowth. On a monthly payout basis the current dividend for Riocan is 15.4% vs 14.2% for Pengrowth based on the original share purchase price in Sept 97. I am sure the performance of ERF.UN and NCF.UN are not as good as PGF.UN. ERF price in Sept 97 was $32. closed today at $26.35 and NCF was $19.00 closed today at $13.35. Keep in mind also that the Oil and Gas trusts are much more volatile and cyclical than REITS and are presently on a down trend. -------------- Now look at a much longer term and see what you get for the OIL and GAS trusts. PGF came out in 85 or 86 at $7 its share price is now $16.50. It paid $0.10 a month in dividends in 85. Now it pays out $0.20 or over. And remember the payouts were and will again return to the over $0.30 paid out at the recent past highs when prices recover which they will. Now your results do not take into account that you should be playing these in an accumulate on weakness strategy. Taking advantage of the huge spreads gives huge gains (paper) when prices recover. And since these are long term holds saying if you sold now really doesn't have any merit because the whole idea is that you do not sell now you enjoy the income generated. Okay now finally what is the bottom line long term returns doing it with an accumulate on weakness strategy. The OIL/Gas have given returns that are in excess of 30% + average yearly annualized. Added to that are the special plays on the rights and warrants that these trusts give their investors over the years. Don't get that with the REITS. Look to my recent past posts of the ERF.WT My first play on these went from $1 to $2.50 and I have since played them twice more. Although for much lesser gains. And will at least once more I suspect before they expire. So now which is the clear winner. You know in just about everything there is the obvious that is easy to find. Then there is the not so obvious that takes a little bit of work to get at. But the rewards for doing so are so very worth it. And just a quick note that the REITS are not immune to a downturn in unit price either. All one has to do is look to the effect the real estate collapse out east in the late '80's early '90's had on the REITS. And what of a chance of recession and all of its effects on the REITS as well. When buisnesses close up and shut down and leave the malls the REITS own what does that do to revenues and values.

To: Goldberry who wrote (1417)	11/9/2001 12:19:22 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11633

Hi Graham, Gas trusts are much more volatile and cyclical than REITS and are presently on a down trend. So since we appear to be in recession now would it be a good time to start watching REITS in general or is anytime a good time to be watching depending upon the individual circumstances of the trust (what comprises it). And not to anyone in particular, I don't take ANYBODY'S words as gospel, because my dough is mine to bake, and anyone who does that is a fool. I freely admit though, that I have learned much from all sides of the debate here, so I hope this doesn't spur on and ancillary flare up, just more ideas. :o) As far as the energy trusts I see that I'm pretty well even price wise (as of today anyway) and have this month's dividend on top. I was until a few months ago pretty bearish on energy in general (as my posts will attest) when I began dipping my toes back in. I'm expecting to be fine until spring now so 'before that' I'll be re-evaluating my positions and the economy in general. regards Kastel a cuter and cuddly Canadian