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To: Moominoid who wrote (8672)	9/11/2001 6:44:08 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Credit volume is record Sorry, couldn't find the original in BIS web site, had to translate from Portuguese (hope is intelligible) Credit volume is record The volume of loans in this years' first semester increased relative to last year say the BIS. Bank of International Settlements. The information published yesterday indicate a global slow down. Differently form the 90's recession, the present enterprises that were already in high debt continue to borrow. Even though they cut production and new investment the companies are seeking credit on the cheap to pay former debts. Contrasting with the markets' agony, there are few signs the we had a crisis in international credit, say the BIS. The loans given by big financial institutions amount to USD431 billion in second trimester this year, a record for the period. The major part of new credit (USD294billion was injected in the US. The growth on international loans is pulled in in the first trimester by an increase of 70% in developed countries. The presidents and directors of the central banks of the ten biggest economies met in Basel Switzerland in the BIS annual meeting. The financial authorities said that a recession is not in the horizon, but, in the other hand, the US will take longer than previous imagined to get back its economy on track,. The president of the Bank of England said that the presidents of the central bans (among them Greenspan) detected sings in the level of inventory and economic spend is levelled off. That suggests that the slow down has stabilized. This is the first step for the economy to recover.

To: Moominoid who wrote (8672)	9/11/2001 10:15:08 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>> doubt you'll find Russian trade in wheat is the prime cause or trigger of the great Depression.<< I agree. But the collapse of the banking system was effect, not prime mover. Why did the banking system collapse? The reduction in international trade was also effect, not prime mover. Why was international trade reduced? Similarly, unemployment didn't "cause" the Great Depression, it was an effect. Industrialization and mechanization didn't "cause" the Great Depression, but they were immensely important events going on for decades before, during and after, that transformed the economy of the world in a way that has to be included in the catalogue of causes. Countries which were not industrialized, e.g. countries as far apart as Chile and China, also experienced it. I think of industrialization as background - just as the aging of the Japanese and western populations are background. The effects are immense, but very slow. I am looking for the small sharp movements in the foreground. I'm not trying to catch waves, I am trying to catch the great white whale. Call me Captain Ahab, or maybe Ishmael.-g- Maybe I think about it the way I think about it from almost 20 years as a plaintiff's lawyer. You have to find the proximate cause, e.g., what caused the man's neck to break wasn't the window he hit his head on, and it wasn't the tree his car ran into, and it wasn't his car that ran into the tree, and it wasn't the other man's car that ran into his car, it was the other driver who was talking on his cell phone and not paying attention. Everything gets added to the timeline. Any event could be the proverbial butterfly's wing that sets off the hurricane, or the cough that sets off the avalanche. The most important events occurred before the banks collapsed . The Depression was already in full swing by summer, 1929. Major banks didn't start folding until late in 1930. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ What are the causes of the recession we are in now?