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To: ChrisJP who wrote (91562)	9/11/2001 5:36:42 PM
From: Jim Bishop	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 150070

janes.com The US attacks: suspects and further concerns Today's unprecedented events in New York and Washington, which are almost certainly the result of a massive and well-co-ordinated terrorist campaign, demonstrate the extreme vulnerability of the United States - and its close allies - to such attacks. JID has been consistent in warning that current events in the Middle East have exposed the US to what may prove to be the greatest risk since the height of the Cuban Missile crisis in 1962 - perhaps in its entire history. As we revealed in last week's issue of JID, US intelligence agencies have been monitoring the activities of various terrorist groups located throughout the Middle East. As we noted: "There is the concern that those responsible for past acts of terrorism may be planning more." Tragically, just five days after we wrote this, our warning seems to have been an accurate assessment. The paramount question is which of the many terrorist organisations is responsible for what is proving to be an extraordinarily carefully planned attack on key symbols of US power and prestige. Inevitably, it is far easier to make accusations than to substantiate them, but the evidence available so far indicates that the following factors will be critical in identifying those who may be responsible: 1. An extreme hatred of the US and its institutions 2. A well-organised network with the expertise and means to infiltrate the US 3. The expertise to carry out several apparently simultaneous aircraft hijacks 4. A disregard for the inevitable consequences - including a US military response 5. A willingness of its operatives to commit suicide for their cause. Based upon our specialist analysis, we have identified the following as potential suspects: Osama bin Laden and Al-Qa'eda ("the Base") The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) Saddam Hussein The PFLP has both a motive for launching an attack against America (which is perceived as Israel's key international ally) following the recent assassination of its Secretary-General Abu Ali Mustafa and a track-record of terrorism that includes hijackings and bombings. The general consensus, however, is that the organisation in its present form lacks the worldwide network necessary for the planning and execution of such a massive series of attacks against the world's sole remaining super-power. Such a campaign takes time and resources to plan and the PFLP is most unlikely to have been able to re-create such an international network so quickly. Saddam Hussein is another possible candidate for involvement. As JID has been warning for months, Saddam's current strategy is to defy the West in order to gain essential grass-roots support from the Islamic world, which he aspires to lead. Also, unlike Libya's Colonel Muamar Ghaddafi, Saddam has shown no sign of a willingness to rebuild relations with the West. Financing and logistical support from Iraq cannot be ruled out, although Iraq itself has little demonstrable record of launching its own attacks outside the Middle East. The top suspect inevitably, must be Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden, who is currently harboured by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Given bin Laden's alleged involvement in previous terrorist outrages, and the fact that his Al-Qa'eda organisation is believed to have a wide international base in various Islamic communities throughout the world, it is clear to see why the US and its allies will regard bin Laden as the evil genius behind what must be the world's worst terrorist atrocity in modern history. Our concern must be that these attacks are only the start of a far-reaching campaign against the US and its main allies, including Britain and Saudi Arabia. Although today's devastation in Manhattan and Washington has been appalling, the real fear is whether extremist Islamicist groups could ever get access to nuclear material and build a rudimentary - but nonetheless deadly - device. Afghan-stan borders the former Soviet Union, the successor states of which have undoubtedly the world's least secure stockpiles of weapons-grade nuclear material. Until today, the horrors that have struck the US might also have been considered the stuff of horror fiction. Now it must be seen as a potential reality. [End of non-subscriber extract.] The full version of this article is accessible through our subscription services. Please refer to the box below for details.