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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (27020)	9/12/2001 9:57:14 AM
From: robwin	Respond to of 30051

I agree Zeev...the reconstruction phase is an essential part of the healing process... Robert

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (27020)	9/12/2001 10:00:23 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

What will be changed...is a bolus of additional spending for reconstruction Zeev, at the risk of sounding like I am ignoring the pain and grief around us, are there any potential longer term stocks you like which will be beneficially affected? TIA Jay

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (27020)	9/12/2001 10:40:52 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 30051

What are the likely immediate consequences when the U.S. markets reopen later this week or next? Anthony Kolton, chief executive of Markethistory.com in Chicago, has researched the past 100 years of events that led the United States into war. He forecasts with confidence that the major indexes will open with losses of 5%, then quickly recover by the end of the following trading week to remain unchanged at pre-catastrophe levels. “If there is a big opening plunge, I think you’ll see a total recovery over the next five days,” he said from Manhattan. Kolton, who was en route to a meeting at the World Trade Center when the buildings were hit, said he also believes that the United States does not face a financial crisis just because the buildings that were destroyed stood at the center of U.S. financial life. The reason: After the 1993 bombing of the buildings, he says, most companies spent millions to build disaster recovery systems and back up all their accounting far off site. “We’re going to recover,” he said. Steve Milner, managing partner of the worldwide financial planning firm Squar Milner in Newport Beach, Calif., said he is most worried about the consumer, not business. Based on conversations with clients, he believes that people will react with fear -- and fearful people rein in their spending on everything from vacations to home remodeling and stocks. That will be a real, not an imagined, economic event, he believes, that could badly damage a U.S. economy that is already sputtering. Milner also notes that many major financial institutions that he does business with were already inclined to be sellers of the recent decline, not buyers. But that could turn around. “People who were inclined to sell might be more inclined to sell now – but I doubt it,” he said. “There is a cynical part of me that says financial professionals will realize that life goes on and will decide to be buyers.” Vic Niederhoffer, a longtime trader for financier George Soros and his own accounts, says that he also believes that a big down market will find buyers. “I really hate to sound mercenary, but I have received many messages from traders who say that they think this will be a terrific opportunity to buy. Whether you look at the John F. Kennedy assassination, the Eisenhower heart attack, the Warren G. Harding ptomaine poisoning or airline crashes, usually disasters provide the greatest times of opportunity,” he said. Niederhoffer, a student of economic history, said that in the past disasters have led to a tremendous boost for local and national economies as capital infrastructure gets rebuilt with the most modern equipment. Those two buildings alone will require massive outlays of funds – possibly provided by the Fed or Congress from the U.S. Treasury – to build miles of new fiber-optic lines, buy the latest data-transmission switches, and possibly tens of thousands of new computers and software. “Everyone will chip in to help and this will turn out to be a transitory event,” Niederhoffer said. “It may cause a temporary slowdown in the U.S. economy and a big disruption in the supply chain, but there is no evidence that declines in products or earnings or commerce have anything to do with stock prices anyway. In fact, there is no evidence to suggest that stocks do any worse in recessions than they do in better times.” Mr. P, a hedge fund trader that I have quoted in past columns, said he likewise believes that the first day’s move could set a bottom to the market. “This is very bad for bonds, very good for stocks,” he said. “This act of war, with the magnitude of the loss of life, will lead Congress to engage in deficit spending like the world has never seen ---- selling billions of dollars of new government bonds to cope both with the reconstruction of New York and the build-up of the American military.”