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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen O who wrote (799)	9/12/2001 10:16:53 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1643

one of the reasons i like some of the base metals better than gold is because in a low growth environment gold demand for jewelry could take a hit. base metals are vital to basic industrial applications and demand is less elastic. with gold you always have the threat of central bank selling and investment dishoarding as well. base metals aren't subject to this to the same degree. many gold and silver bulls love to cite examples of strong investor demand for coins as one argument for their bullishness. i see it the opposite way, it just looks like more supply that could easily find it's way back into the market, especially if times get real tough and people need to raise cash. the best time to invest in silver and gold is after everyone who has been patiently waiting for the world to end just gives up and dumps their precious metal holdings in capitulation. we are much closer than we were in the 1980's, because many stocked up on silver and gold coins ahead of y2k. selling from discouraged black helicopter fans has hurt silver and gold the last year. i suppose people could melt down post-1982 pennies for their zinc content one day but prices would have to increase around 5 fold before a cent would be worth enough to do that. :)