SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: American Spirit who wrote (8828)9/12/2001 8:00:51 PM
From: American Spirit  Respond to of 74559
 
The title of this thread should also be changed. Considering the situation it is very un-American.
Even if you're right and we should all pray you're not.
Frankly I think the US and its economy will come out of this even stronger. But it's a free country and you're entitled to your opinion. Still, this title is tasteless at best.



To: American Spirit who wrote (8828)9/12/2001 8:01:12 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
<<Passengers aboard the plane which crashed in PA wrestled control away from terrorists then gave their own lives thereby saving The White House (probable target). When I hear this kind of thing I ask "What can I do to help?">>

If those passengers were here to tell us, when asked the question "What can I do to help", on the list of the top 50 things they might suggest would NOT be the answer "Buy lots of shares of MSFT, LEN, RDN, and BBY."<NG>

If you wanna help, donate blood, give money to the Red Cross or the NY Fire Department widows and orphans fund. Plant a tree for peace. Hug your kid! Do anything but overpay for common stocks...



To: American Spirit who wrote (8828)9/12/2001 8:03:57 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
AS, are you starting to see that your position makes absolutely no economic sense? I tried to educate you, but wonder whether it shank in. People spend a very tiny portion of any increases in their stock wealth (the Fed estimates around 3%.) Predictably, you ignored my pleas to you to go out and SPEND. But that's what helps the economy, and of course, that's what no prudent person will be doing right now.

Unlike long term buy and hold investors, short traders view their short trading profits as income. Very few shorts are long term sell and hold type investors. So they spend a much higher portion of their profits. Essentially shorts take equity from LTBH investors, and spend a much higher portion than LTBH would if THEY had the profits.

In conclusion: shorting is great for the economy and the patriotic thing to do in these trying times. Just make sure you spend more than 3% of your short profits.

Kyros



To: American Spirit who wrote (8828)9/12/2001 9:21:22 PM
From: Don Lloyd  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
AS -

...One thing I will do is stop at any gas station trying to gouge and tell them off. I will also chastise anyone trying to profit off this, no matter who or how. You should all do the same....

Nonsense. You can't cheat an honest man and you can't gouge a rational consumer, at least not without injuring yourself.

mises.org

"Flower Prices
Gouging for Flowers?
By Rob Blackstock

A year ago July, I sent my girlfriend some flowers. I picked up the phone, called a florist, and, for about thirty dollars, she received one dozen roses. Seven months later, for Valentine's Day, I called the same florist and again ordered one dozen roses for my girlfriend. This time, however, they would cost one hundred twenty dollars.

I was floored. "A hundred and twenty bucks!? You can't be serious?" But the clerk assured me that he was and as this was the big day for roses, I could expect that price everywhere and I might as well warm up to the idea. Of course, I forked over the money. But why was this happening?

Rose producers supply a fairly constant demand of roses throughout the year. However, when Valentine's Day arrives, the demand for their product increases by a huge amount. Since roses cannot be stored for long periods of time, rose producers must hire seasonal workers to assist them and they must make preparation for their good to be completed and on the market at just the right time.

Even though more roses are produced for Valentine's Day than at any other time of the year, the increase in supply is by no means as great as the increase in demand, hence the higher price for roses.

Allow me to state this again. Even though the wholesalers of the roses know that Valentine's Day is approaching, the price at which they sell to retailers will rise because demand will increase relative to supply.

Because consumers are willing to pay the higher prices, producers are willing to incur higher costs associated with meeting the demand. In the end, the market for flowers at Valentine's Day is fully coordinated, with neither systematic shortages or surpluses.

Now, take a look at a press release by Associated Industries of Florida from September 23, 1998.

"Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) reminds businesses that it is illegal in Florida to increase prices above the normal price level in times of impending disaster or after disaster strikes. In other words, as the hurricane approaches Florida, all businesses should retain their present prices on all items."

This is, of course, Florida's response to the act of price gouging. "It is illegal in Florida to increase prices above the normal price level in times of impending disaster or after disaster strikes. "

The obvious next question: why is the act of increasing the price of a good in response to an increase in demand illegal after a hurricane but not at Valentine's Day?

Men, if you didn't show up with a dozen roses for your wife or girlfriend on Valentine's Day, disaster would strike. There is nothing we can do but grin and bear it because the price system is working exactly as it is supposed to do. It is positioning itself in a way that the people who most highly value the roses are the one's who will buy them.

Now, go back to the hurricane. It passes through Florida leaving most residents without power. Jim, the doctor, has $400 worth of meat in his fridge that will spoil if he doesn't get some ice. So he goes down to the market where there just happens to be 1,000 bags of ice for sale.

Unfortunately, due to Florida's laws concerning prices, the ice is still priced at one dollar per bag and there is a line of 1000 people ahead of him. Jim can't wait in line. His time is too valuable (both as a doctor to people who need his services and in reference to lost wages if he stayed in line). Therefore, Jim loses all his meat even though he would have gladly paid $100 for a bag.

I hear what you're saying: "What about all the poor people (and not so poor people) who can't afford $100 for a bag of ice? What would they do?"

As I said, there was only 1000 bags at this market (which I believe is being generous—usually when I look in the ice bin at the store, there might be 20 or 30 bags at the bottom, half of which are broken). So 1000 poor people (who have time costs low enough to spend a couple of hours in line) get a bag of ice. What about all the rest of the poor in that neighborhood? What will they do?

If ice had been allowed to rise, and ice producers allowed to make high profits, people with ice or with trucks from all the neighboring states would have headed to Florida with hopes of making a quick buck. But when they all arrived (and there would be many) the normal forces of supply and demand would push the price of ice back down to a more agreeable state.

So, in the real world (with anti-price-gouging laws) the first 1000 people get ice while everyone else is out of luck for what could be weeks while their world slowly returns to normal. However, if the price had been allowed to fluctuate (even up to $100 a bag) only the people who valued it the most would have received it on the first day, but by the second, trucks would have been rolling in from all over the US and by the end of the week, prices would have returned to a more normal state.

In 1928, Lenin began his, "revolution from above," in an effort to transform the Soviet Union into a socialist state. This consisted of nationalizing heavy industry, forcing farmers into, "collectives," and attempting to control it all through central planning. That is, he was doing away with prices and allowing the central government to decide what and how much should be produced.

This plan of, "playing market," as pointed out by the economist Ludwig von Mises, would not work. By eliminating the key signal in any market (prices), socialism would be doomed to fail. And by eliminating the ability of prices to do their task in Florida after a disaster, our central planners delayed clean up by keeping prices artificially low.

So, with Valentine's Day rapidly approaching, I am happy. Even with the increased demand, the flowers I want will be available now because the price system works. I just hope that, in the future, my fearless leaders don't freeze prices on roses in the name of, "fairness." Otherwise, my sweety may be getting her Valentine's Day roses on labor day."

Regards, Don



To: American Spirit who wrote (8828)9/12/2001 10:53:21 PM
From: rails99  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello AS:
You have made many good reasons for why there should be no money or profiteering in gold or other commodities. Do not get the wrong impression about me as I view the recent tragedy as despicable and a violent act of terrorism. The perpetrators should be caught and brought to justice. I hope the human tragedy and loss of lives of all the innocent people will not be meaningless, that this event may help us all to find ways to resolve as much world conflict as may be possible, both now and in the future.

The following is my reason for investing or holding gold. When gold was debased by the central banks, miner stocks shorted by the financial giants in money centers, borrowed/leased from central banks and sold cheap and cheaper on world markets; all this done for many years of late by greedy financial money managers, the world has seen the price of gold fall in a bear market for nearly 20 years. Those money managers went home and slept well for night after night; while poor nations had to literally debase their own resource to extract more to sell at a cheaper price. It was their only life-long means of income. The British fought the Boers War over the ownership of gold mines, taking the mines from people who took them from the natives of the lands of South Africa. The British took gold from the mines for years to finance their world domination. Just as the Spanish took gold from the Aztecs to finance their dreams of world domination for near hundreds of years.

Did not consider investing in gold miners and exploration companies until I learned about the cyclical nature of the commodities the hard way. I was invested in oil company shares in Summer of 2000. Did hard research to pick the financially best of the best. Lost money big time. Had intended to buy and hold. When I lost so much due to the selloff after gasoline storage had topped out that summer, it took me a while to find out why. The reason is it is a cyclical commodity, hyped up at the top and sold off even though the fundamentals of the companies in the sector are still in best of shape. Thus: If gold is cyclical as well, if the entire financial community treats the miners with disregard, if the federal authorities conspire to degrade the only livelyhood of millions of innocent peoples of nations that live in dire straights; please forgive me: If I invest in a commodity that is at the bottom of the cyclical trough; before most others even looked at that form of investment; months and or years before the price of the commodity moves to return to historical levels, let alone any higher level of price due to any crisis.

I entered my gold positions when the price was at 252.00, is that scalping the innocent? I wait for my investment to mature, with no guarantee of return. It may be years before an acceptable return. My reason for the selection is that I see the financial community ruining the mining companies with lower prices, gold sales, gold leasing, etc. I see less numbers of these mining companies with more frequent mine closures, nearly one per month as of late. Perhaps demand will outstrip supply before the central banks have sold all the gold that was to be held for the citizens of each respective country as the value backing their currency.

It is not my fault that the price of gold will rise at some future point. But if demand remains strong as it has throughout history, the price will increase and I may get a return on my investment. Hope you can understand.

Also: Heard another individual was investing in this manner. He too was called to hold blood money. Just whose blood has been spilt for the gold we now have above ground, and who do you feel has suffered the most to allow even you to hold gold. Perhaps it is your faulty perception not to hold gold. I hold my investment to protect my family from the devaluation of my previous savings and investments.

Are you going to denounce the talking heads of the market makers when and if they try to hype gold to you; as they have done the last twenty years for shares of all the other market sectors, on a rotating sector basis? Have you seen bear charts of sectors over the period of this year and last? Have you heard the wall street hypester as they try to sell shares of technology companies, only to see those companies sell-off on news of share dilution, bad earnings, etc. The entire market is a shell game in bad times and the only way to protect assets is to not play the game according to the market hypester and the companies they represent. Right now it is a business of longs, shorts and short-squeeze bear rallies. It is a flat out business. Maybe in years from now it will be a business of the buy and hold type of investor, not now. Blame for the fiscal crisis, cause of this global recession, which has created current situation; does rest on many shoulders.

Hope you got cash or PMs.

Respectfully Submitted;
Rails